HALISTER1: Yield Curve to Steepen No Matter Who Is Elected President : BMO

Yield Curve to Steepen No Matter Who Is Elected President : BMO

(Bloomberg) -- Both Trump and Clinton’s policy platforms increase the federal deficit and spending, leading to a steeper yield curve in the near-term, BMO strategists Aaron Kohli and Dan Belton say in note.
  • Prospect of Trump victory may drive immediate rally in rates
    • Clinton victory to cause smaller steepening, especially if Congress remains Republican-controlled
  • Senate election has been “woefully under-covered,” has just as many legislative implications
  • Party split between president and Senate should limit curve movement
  • Debt ceiling, increases in debt issuance, and potential FOMC changes most relevant for rates mkts
  • Related story, USD/MXN Could Trade Above 20 If Trump Does Well in Debate: BMO
  • Related story, Congress Election More Important to Mkts Than U.S. President: DB
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Aaron Kohli (Bank of Montreal)
Daniel Belton (Bank of Montreal)

Topics
Government Appointments, Political Changes

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