HALISTER1: Venezuela ‘Can’t Keep Pulling Rabbits Out of Hat’ on Debt: Khan

Venezuela ‘Can’t Keep Pulling Rabbits Out of Hat’ on Debt: Khan

(Bloomberg) -- Venezuela can’t keep working miracles to pay its debt, but it’s possible for the nation to scrape through 2017 without a default, AllianceBernstein portfolio manager Shamaila Khan says at Debtwire summit in New York.
  • Favors Venezuelan bonds relative to other LatAm nations given current prices
  • PDVSA’s Citgo collateral “has a lot of value,” although it may not be as high as mentioned in debt exchange, Daniel Sensel, senior analyst at Warlander Asset Management, says
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
PDVSA VC (Petroleos de Venezuela SA)

People
Shamaila Khan (AllianceBernstein LP)
Daniel Sensel (Warlander Asset Management LP)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: The Rainmaker: Moving Corrupt and Persecuted Venezuelans to U.S.

The Rainmaker: Moving Corrupt and Persecuted Venezuelans to U.S.

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
PDVSA VC (Petroleos de Venezuela SA)

People
Alvaro Uribe Velez (Republic of Colombia)
Amos Hochstein (United States Department of State)
Donald Trump (United States of America)
George Bush (United States of America)
Hugo Chavez Frias (Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Wells Fargo Commercial Mortgage Trust 2016-LC25 - DBRS Rating Report

Wells Fargo Commercial Mortgage Trust 2016-LC25 - DBRS Rating Report

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: DBR (Dominion Bond Rating Service)

People
Erin Stafford (Dbrs, Inc.)
Kevin Mammoser (DBRS Inc)

Topics
Credit Analysis Research
Credit Research
Fixed Income Research
Investment Research
Reports

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: 5y5y Real Rates Are ~65bp Too Low, BofAML Says

5y5y Real Rates Are ~65bp Too Low, BofAML Says

(Bloomberg) -- Forward real interest rates “remain extremely low relative to fair value,” and are likely to rise under new administration’s plans, BofAML strategists Shyam Rajan and Carol Zhang write in note.
  • BofAML’s model for real rates includes potential GDP, global savings rate, forward deficit to GDP projections, foreign official buying of USTs as a share of GDP, and average maturity of private-sector UST debt
  • Trump policies “will likely lead to either a good increase in real rates” from higher GDP and lower savings “or a bad one” from higher deficits and longer average maturity of debt
  • Model-derived fair value for 5y5y real rates is 1.55% vs 5y5y TIPS yield of ~0.90%; indicates fair value of ~4% for 5y5y nominal rates
  • BofAML recommends being short 10y real rates both in cash and swaps, a top trade for 2017; risk is dramatic increase in price-insensitive demand for USTs or a very dovish Fed
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Carol Zhang (Bank of America Corp)
Shyam Rajan (Bank of America Corp)

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UUID: 7947283