No ECB Hike Before 2019, Euro Zone Yields to Stay Low: Evercore
(Bloomberg) -- Combination of QE extension and tapering signals a “longer but slower” trajectory for ECB and indicates the bank won’t raise rates before 2019, Evercore ISI’s Krishna Guha writes in note.
- New forward guidance pushing back hikes that got “pulled in” after Trump election win and keeping front end of bund curve down
- Nine-month extension of QE “puts the ECB on autopilot” through all European elections in 2017
- Evercore expects ECB to stick with the same national allocation of QE budget but buy few bunds at front end when yields are low
- Will instead buy bunds later with higher yields to “maintain long-run fidelity to capital key”
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HALISTER1Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
Tickers 2539Z GR (European Central Bank)
People Krishna Guha (Evercore Partners Inc)
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