Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Emerging markets will benefit from pickup in business investments globally, Markus Schomer, chief economist at PineBridge Investments, says in briefing in Singapore.

• Sees India doing well due to faster growth and as economy is domestically driven, Michael Kelly, global head of multi- asset strategy, says at same briefing
• Brazil’s bond market will do well as inflation is peaking and monetary policy has been “super tight:” Kelly
• READ: Treasury Slump Means More Emerging-Market Pain: Amundi
• READ: Black Money Purge Spurs World’s Only Bond Gain in Trump Rout
• Among Asian local-currency bond markets, PineBridge likes Indonesia bonds the most because of nation’s positive fundamentals and attractive valuation
• Indonesia has healthy growth, reforms: Omar Slim, portfolio manager for Asian fixed income at firm

(Bloomberg) -- U.K. energy firm GB Energy Supply’s announcement that business has become untenable due to recent energy price rises highlights potential impact of commodity and bond yield volatility on credit fundamentals, Bloomberg strategist Simon Ballard writes.

• Rates market direction and December political risk to remain key drivers of near-term credit market performance
• Higher commodity input prices weigh on corporate profitability, credit quality; higher yields, debt service costs most onerous on balance sheets of lower-rated issuers that have benefited from cheap credit
  • Corporate bond markets weakened, returns eroded by higher yield structure even as ECB and BOE maintain corp bond purchase programmes
• Italian banks also under spotlight ahead of Dec. 4 referendum; ‘No’ vote for Renzi may create sharp negative mkt reaction, test sustainability of banks

• Bloomberg Barclays Eur-Agg Corporate index closed Friday at 125bps (+1bp); Bloomberg Barclays Eur HY index closed at 424bps (+1bp)
• CDX IG closed Friday at 73.16 (-0.6bp); iTraxx Asia Ex Japan IG is currently +0.6bps at 127.74 and iTraxx Australia quoted +0.5bps at 110.17

NEWS

• Corporate News
• Deutsche Telekom Network Down in Parts of Germany
• Sistema 3Q Sales Up 1.3% Y/y Driven by Detsky Mir, Segezha Group
• Veolia Gets Contract for Wastewater Treatment Plant for Aramco
• Aryzta 1Q Total Revenue Declines 3.3%; EPS Outlook Unchanged

• Financial News
• Biggest U.K. Banks Seen Struggling in Toughest Stress Tests Yet
• VTB October Net Interest Income 34b Rubles, Up 6.6% Y/Y
• Small China Banks to Chase Riskier Debt as Borrowing Costs Rise
• Aberdeen AUM GBP312.1b Year-End; Further Outflows from Sentiment

• Rating News
• China Residential Property Market Outlook Stable in ’17: Moody’s
• S&PGR: Tata Group Rtgs Unaffected By Board Discord

• Other News
• Morgan Stanley Sees Wider Asia Credit Spreads, Stays Underweight
• Deutsche Bank Wealth Cautious on Indonesia Bonds After Trump
• Resimac Plans A$300 Million Mortgage Bond Issue, Fitch Says
• Fillon Unites French Right With Primary Win as Socialists Split

ANALYST VIEWS

• November has become the cruelest of months for corporate bond market investors. Having survived a weak January and February, recovered strongly in the period from March to October, we are about to record the first negative month for performance since those opening months (of the year). Investors are fretting because it looked so good just three weeks ago: creditmarketdaily.com

NEW ISSUES

• No new issues priced Friday
• European IG credit pipeline here and HY credit pipeline here

• NOTE: Simon Ballard is a credit strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.

(Bloomberg) -- Spain is investigating Ukrainian businessman Dmirty Firtash over allegations of money laundering, Austrian daily Kronen-Zeitung reports, without saying where it got the information.

• Spanish extradition request comes on top of similar U.S. demand
• Firtash’s lawyer Dieter Boehmdorfer says in e-mailed comment that allegations are “complete falsehood and fabrication”
• Austrian court rejected U.S. request; appeal pending
• NOTE, March 29: Exiled Billionaire Wants to Swap Vienna for Ukrainian Homeland

(Bloomberg) -- Here’s a roundup of Indian co. debt-rating changes.

• To get this story sent to your inbox real-time, run NI INRATINGS , click on Display & Edit, then Set Alert Delivery

DOWNGRADES

• Sansar Texturisers
  • Long-term bank facilities cut to D from B+ at Crisil
  • Cites continuous overdrawn limits

• Venus Infrastructure
  • LT bank facilities cut to BBB- from BBB at Crisil
  • Expects moderation in offtake versus construction pace

UPGRADES

• Micro Plastics
  • LT bank facilities raised to BBB+ from BBB at Crisil
  • Cites steady revenue growth, healthy profitability

(Bloomberg) -- Asia-Pacific currencies and rates direction will continue to be buffeted by swings in UST yields as investors reassess global inflation expectations, Bloomberg strategist Mark Cranfield writes.

• Click here to see major local data due this week
• AUD/USD may rise toward 200-DMA at 0.7522 if retail sales on Dec. 2 beat ests. Aussie bears will also be focused on spread between U.S. and AUD bond yields for medium-term guidance
• Australia’s 10-year yields showing a golden cross on charts with 50-DMA above 200-DMA, which points toward 3.00% yield medium-term; chart here
• NZD/USD may advance if dollar rally pauses ahead of payroll data on Dec. 2. Kiwi momentum studies are turning higher; chart here
• New Zealand’s 2-year swaps consolidating within rising channel, running since late September; chart here
• USD/INR consolidation below 69.00 level may extend this week as India 3Q GDP is seen rising to 7.5% from 7.1% in 2Q, according to Bloomberg survey; data due on Nov. 30
• NOTE: Mark Cranfield is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.

(Bloomberg) -- Daily levels for GBP and Asian currency pairs:

• USD/JPY -- Bullish momentum studies fading; chart here
• 3rd resistance: 114.87, Feb. 16 high
• 2nd resistance: 114.45, March 10 high
• 1st resistance: 113.90, Nov. 25 high
• Spot: 112.89; pivot point: 112.88
• 1st support: 112.62, 5-DMA
• 2nd support: 111.32, 10-DMA
• 3rd support: 106.41, 200-DMA

• GBP/USD -- Capped below 55-DMA
• 3rd resistance: 1.2771, Oct. 5 high
• 2nd resistance: 1.2674, Nov. 11 high
• 1st resistance: 1.2555, 55-DMA
• Spot: 1.2468; pivot point: 1.2471
• 1st support: 1.2429, 21-DMA
• 2nd support: 1.2221, Nov. 2 low
• 3rd support: 1.2090, Oct. 11 low

• AUD/USD -- Consolidating below 200-DMA
• 3rd resistance: 0.7540, 21-DMA
• 2nd resistance: 0.7522, 200-DMA
• 1st resistance: 0.7468, Nov. 25 high
• Spot: 0.7439; pivot point: 0.7446
• 1st support: 0.7415, 5-DMA
• 2nd support: 0.7286, June 16 low
• 3rd support: 0.7202, June 2 low

• NZD/USD -- Consolidating around 200-DMA at 0.7038
• 3rd resistance: 0.7187, 55-DMA
• 2nd resistance: 0.7152, 21-DMA
• 1st resistance: 0.7043, 10-DMA
• Spot: 0.7040; pivot point: 0.7044
• 1st support: 0.6957, July 25 low
• 2nd support: 0.6952, July 21 low
• 3rd support: 0.6801, June 3 low

• USD/SGD -- Consolidating below 2016 high
• 3rd resistance: 1.4527, 7-year high
• 2nd resistance: 1.4500, psychological level
• 1st resistance: 1.4444, Jan. 11 and YTD high
• Spot: 1.4277; pivot point: 1.4279
• 1st support: 1.4243, 10-DMA
• 2nd support: 1.4089, 21-DMA
• 3rd support: 1.3851, Nov. 9 low

• USD/KRW -- Capped below November high
• 3rd resistance: 1,217.15, March 9 high
• 2nd resistance: 1,198.05, May 31 high
• 1st resistance: 1,188.50, June 27 high
• Spot: 1,177.43 (close on Nov. 25); pivot point: 1,178.68
• 1st support: 1,176.78, 10-DMA
• 2nd support: 1,160.53, 21-DMA
• 3rd support: 1,133.15, 55-DMA

• USD/MYR -- Approaching 2015 high
• 3rd resistance: 4.8850, record high in 1998
• 2nd resistance: 4.6100, Jan. 26, 1998 high
• 1st resistance: 4.4800, Sept. 29, 2015 high
• Spot: 4.4583 (close on Nov. 25); pivot point: 4.4597
• 1st support: 4.4040, 10-DMA
• 2nd support: 4.3045, 21-DMA
• 3rd support: 4.2070, 55-DMA

• NOTE: Mark Cranfield is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.