HALISTER1: U.S. 10Y Breakeven Rate Stalling at Key Resistance Area: Charts

U.S. 10Y Breakeven Rate Stalling at Key Resistance Area: Charts

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. 10-year breakven rates pausing near resistance 1.91-97% resistance zone, comprising the 200-week MA and May 2015 high, Bloomberg technical analyst Sejul Gokal writes.
  • See chart here
  • TIPS underperforming nominal USTs, narrowing the breakeven rate to 1.89% from an 18-mo high of 1.97% seen this week
    • Support at 1.76%-1.73%, the highs on Oct. 31 and April 29
  • NOTE: Oversold UST 30-year fades selloff against 200-Week MA support at 3.05%: click here for more
  • NOTE: Sejul Gokal is a technical strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Bond ‘Bloodbath’ to Cause Pain for Holders, Borrowers: CapEcon

Bond ‘Bloodbath’ to Cause Pain for Holders, Borrowers: CapEcon

(Bloomberg) -- Post-election slump in global bond prices, rise in long-term rates will cause “some pain” for existing bondholders and future borrowers, Capital Economics economist Julian Jessop writes in note Tuesday.
  • Selloff could gather pace; may be start of shift toward looser fiscal policy, tighter monetary policy led by U.S.
    • CapEcon expects 10Y UST yield to be back at 3% next year
  • “Bigger picture” is that bond yields remain near historic lows
    • Even if yields rise further, their long-awaited normalization may be a “welcome side-effect” of fading deflation fears
    • “To be clear, any increase in yields will hurt some borrowers, regardless of the cause”
  • Recent rise in yields in U.S. and U.K. largely due to hopes that additional fiscal stimulus will boost economic activity
    • Yields would have to rise a lot further to present serious threat to valuations of other assets or to economy
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Julian Jessop (Capital Economics Ltd)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Cargill, Incorporated and Cargill Limited - DBRS Rating Report

Cargill, Incorporated and Cargill Limited - DBRS Rating Report

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: DBR (Dominion Bond Rating Service)

Tickers
3091Z US (Cargill Inc)

People
Anil Passi (DBRS Ltd)
Benjamin Deutsch (Dominion Bond Rating Srvcs)
Michael Goldberg (DBRS Ltd)

Topics
Fixed Income Research
Credit Analysis Research
Credit Research
Investment Research

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: U.S. High-Grade Corporate Bonds ‘Only Game in Town’: BofAML

U.S. High-Grade Corporate Bonds ‘Only Game in Town’: BofAML

(Bloomberg) -- Unlike during 2013 “Taper Tantrum,” U.S. high-grade corporate bond market is “only game in town globally”; overseas investors should remain steady buyers, BofAML strategist Hans Mikkelsen writes in note Monday.
  • This means a more significant sell-off in USTs would be needed to generate enough outflows from bond funds and ETFs that credit spreads move wider
  • In few trading days since Nov. 8 U.S. election, importance of foreign inflows has been seen as back-end buying accelerated, which helped offset domestic investor selling
  • U.S. high grade corporate bond market remains “only game in town” where overseas investors can get both bonds and yield
    • During Taper Tantrum, market paid out only 17% of global investment grade yield income; it presently pays out 28% of such yield
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Hans Mikkelsen (Bank of America Corp)

Topics
BGOV Finance

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: U.S. ECO PREVIEW: Business Inventories Due in 5 Minutes

U.S. ECO PREVIEW: Business Inventories Due in 5 Minutes

(Bloomberg) -- Business inventories seen rising 0.2% in Sept., same as Aug. (forecast range 0% to +0.2%); data track retail, wholesale and factory inventories.
  • “If another mild reading is registered for total inventories, there wouldn’t be much of a change in the positive 0.6% contribution to 3Q aggregate demand”: Bloomberg Intelligence
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283