Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Expected consolidation zone for 10Y yield captures its range from November 2015 to January 2016, and fact that UST swap spreads in long end haven’t widened shows “the extent of domestic demand” from long-duration investors for fixed-rate assets, Morgan Stanley strategists led by Matthew Hornbach say in Nov. 9 note.

• They pull recommendation of long UST 10Y vs German 10Y, which was crushed in yesterday’s UST selloff, and “suggest investors position for steeper curves,” particularly 7s30s at 103bp

(Bloomberg) -- BRL and other emerging markets drop, reflecting uncertainties over the impact of U.S. President Trump’s policies on inflation and global trade, analysts say.

• Rise in U.S. yields is making investors in EMFX nervous, Georgette Boele, currency & metals strategist at ABN Amro, says in a phone interview
  • Higher yields reflect faster inflation expectations following the Trump victory
  • Uncertainty about global trade has increased
  • Markets waiting on more details from Trump and what people he will put in what position
  • Boele expects BRL to weaken in the coming quarters
• “The external uncertainty is still too large regarding Trump’s position, especially when it comes to the economy,” Mauricio Oreng, a senior strategist at Rabobank, says
  • “If he manages to accelerate the economy and combat disinflation via fiscal adjustment, the dollar will strengthen against emerging markets through a faster pace of Fed rates”

(Bloomberg) -- Initial jobless claims seen at 260k in week ended Nov. 5 vs 265k prior wk (forecast range 255k to 275k); represents inflow of workers receiving unemployment benefits.

• Filings have been below 300k for 87 weeks in a row, longest since 1970

(Bloomberg) -- Brookfield will have exclusive right for up to 24 months to create “pre-development plan” for ~50 real estate assets.

• Separately, Macy’s boosts full-year sales forecast

Statement: NSN OGFG40MEQTY3