Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Amando Tetangco’s pronouncement he’ll provide liquidity as needed being viewed as a sign that excessive volatility won’t be allowed, tempering USD/PHP buying in Manila’s spot market, says Andre Ibarra, chief dealer at Security Bank.

• “They’re always there to curb volatility. As traders see that the BSP is there, they don’t excessively buy dollars,” Ibarra says by phone in Manila
• Favorable trade data -- narrowing of trade deficit and rise in exports -- not having any impact as market focuses on external developments
• USD/PHP psychological resistance at 49; may test 48.850 that’s intraday high yesterday
• NOTE: Pair rose as much as 0.27% to 48.725 today, now at 48.65
• Expectations that Trump presidency will lead to tax cuts and more spending tend to be inflationary, hitting long-end U.S. Treasuries, which are being tracked by local debt yields: Ibarra
• Philippine yields may rise at least 5-10bps today, he says

(Bloomberg) -- Indian bonds and the rupee are likely to be near-term outperformers following U.S. election, with major catalyst being India’s surprise ban on high denomination notes, which will suck the bulk of existing cash out of circulation, Goldman Sachs says.

• The move is positive for bonds because of the increase in banking system liquidity, eventual positive effects on the tax base and govt revenue, and likely short-term disinflationary effects on spending from cash constraints, analysts including Timothy Moe and Andrew Tilton write in note
• INR may face some volatility near term, but over the medium term, current account should improve on lower imports
• Read more: Modi hits multiple targets with corruption crackdown
• CNY likely to continue depreciating vs the dollar, reflecting sustained and significant domestic capital outflow pressure
• IDR, KRW, and MYR at risk of underperforming near term; overweight position makes Indonesia vulnerable during risk aversion
• Thai rates and currency could continue to be safe haven due to low volatility, low yield and high current account surplus
  • Thailand is largest underweight market in all EM local currency bond funds, which implies investors should at least partially cover some underweight position as they reduce overweight elsewhere

(Bloomberg) -- Ringgit at weakest since Jan. 28 as Trump win stokes anxiety the U.S. will adopt protectionist policies that hit Asian emerging currencies and stocks.

• Ringgit down 0.6% 4.2515 per dollar; touched 4.258 early session
• USD/MYR above 50-DMA at 4.1489
  • Bullish momentum with MACD above signal and zero lines, slow stochastics %K at 81; chart here
• Najib growth push stymied by banks cautious on loans
• Malaysia 3Q GDP seen at 4%, same as 2Q: Bloomberg survey
  • Data due Nov. 11 at 12pm local time
• 5-year credit-protection costs for Malaysia rose 5bps to 128bps on Wednesday, according to CMA New York data

(Bloomberg) -- If President-elect Trump introduces a second Homeland Investment Act, U.S. companies could repatriate much as $1.2t, or four times the amount they sent home during the last tax holiday on overseas earnings, says Citigroup.

• The Act in 2005 led to dollar appreciation of around 15% as $300b flowed into U.S., Citi says
• Any inflows would be supportive for equities, as money would likely to be used for dividends and M&A, which could further boost dollar, writes strategist Citi’s Steven Englander
  • An equity rally would likely pull long interest rates higher
• State Street says the potential for new Act may spur a significant dollar rally; see story here
• NOTE: Almost $3t in earnings from U.S. multinationals went untaxed in 1H16; Trump’s proposal in late October was for a 10% tax on past foreign earnings, down from the 35% that global conglomerates now face
• 10-year Treasury yield is down 5bps today to 2.01% after surging 20bps overnight
• BBDXY up 0.1% to 1,216.49 following a 1.4% gain Wednesday

(Bloomberg) -- Daily levels for GBP and Asian currency pairs:

• USD/JPY -- Regains 105 handle after steep losses yesterday
• 3rd resistance: 106.60, 200-DMA
• 2nd resistance: 106.54, July 27 high
• 1st resistance: 105.89, Nov. 9 high
• Spot: 105.72; pivot point: 104.25
• 1st support: 103.05, 50-DMA
• 2nd support: 102.85, 100-DMA
• 3rd support: 101.20, Nov. 9 low

• GBP/USD -- Capped below 50-DMA
• 3rd resistance: 1.2700, 50-DMA
• 2nd resistance: 1.2623, Oct. 7 high
• 1st resistance: 1.2557, Nov. 4 high
• Spot: 1.2416; pivot point: 1.2436
• 1st support: 1.2290, 21-DMA
• 2nd support: 1.2083, Oct. 15 low
• 3rd support: 1.1990, 76.4% Fibo retracement of Oct. 7-10 rally

• AUD/USD -- Holding below November high
• 3rd resistance: 0.7849, May 2015 high
• 2nd resistance: 0.7835, April 21 high
• 1st resistance: 0.7778, Nov. 8 high
• Spot: 0.7644; pivot point: 0.7662
• 1st support: 0.7589, 100-DMA
• 2nd support: 0.7503, 200-DMA
• 3rd support: 0.7442, Sept. 13 low

• NZD/USD -- Holding below September high
• 3rd resistance: 0.7564, 17-month high
• 2nd resistance: 0.7486, Sept. 7 high
• 1st resistance: 0.7403, Nov. 8 high
• Spot: 0.7288; pivot point: 0.7313
• 1st support: 0.7265, Nov. 9 low
• 2nd support: 0.7244, 50-DMA
• 3rd support: 0.7211, 100-DMA

• USD/KRW -- Retesting 200-DMA at 1,154.27
• 3rd resistance: 1,188.50, June 27 high
• 2nd resistance: 1,169.13, July 6 high
• 1st resistance: 1,157.23, Nov. 9 high
• Spot: 1,149.43 (close on Nov. 9); pivot point: 1,144.43
• 1st support: 1,128.27, 100-DMA
• 2nd support: 1,121.19, 50-DMA
• 3rd support: 1,118.80, Oct. 20 low

• USD/MYR -- Pushing higher toward February high
• 3rd resistance: 4.2808, Jan. 26 low (breakaway gap)
• 2nd resistance: 4.2467, Feb. 24 high
• 1st resistance: 4.2395, Nov. 9 high
• Spot: 4.2275 (close on Nov. 9); pivot point: 4.2148
• 1st support: 4.1757, Nov. 3 low
• 2nd support: 4.1448, 50-DMA
• 3rd support: 4.1325, Oct. 11 low

• USD/SGD -- Testing Fibonacci resistance above 1.40
• 3rd resistance: 1.4119, Feb. 29 high
• 2nd resistance: 1.4045, March 2 high
• 1st resistance: 1.4012, 61.8% Fibo retracement of 2016 range
• Spot: 1.3996 pivot point: 1.3946
• 1st support: 1.3851, Nov. 9 low
• 2nd support: 1.3819, Nov. 2 low
• 3rd support: 1.3791, 38.2% Fibo retracement of Sept. 22-Oct. 27 rally

• USD/IDR -- Edging toward 200-DMA resistance
• 3rd resistance: 13,249, 200-DMA
• 2nd resistance: 13,243, Sept. 14 high
• 1st resistance: 13,188, Nov. 9 high
• Spot: 13,099 (close on Nov. 9); pivot point: 13,114
• 1st support: 13,055, Nov. 9 low
• 2nd support: 12,980, Oct. 20 low
• 3rd support: 12,955, Oct. 10 low

• NOTE: Andrew Robinson is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.

(Bloomberg) -- Asian emerging currencies are set to decline when trading starts in their markets on Wednesday, after developing-market stocks fell the most in five months and Mexico’s peso touched a record low as Donald Trump’s presidential election victory stoked anxiety that the U.S. will adopt protectionist policies.

• USD/KRW 1-month NDF at 1,157.90 per dollar as of 7:33 a.m. in Tokyo on Thursday, or 0.7% lower than the spot currency’s close on Wednesday in Seoul.
• USD/MYR 1-month NDF at 4.2625 per dollar in the most recent data, 0.8% weaker than the closing spot price
• Full story here