Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Turkey CDS basis is cheapest in 6 months and one of the world’s most attractive buys, BNP strategists including Andrew Macfarlane, said in e-mailed report dated yday.

• Says forced investment grade selling after Moody’s credit downgrade is probably over
• Recommends investors buy Turkey 2021 dollar bonds
• Says investors should switch from:
  • AKBNK $ ’22s into TCZIRA $ ’21s
  • EXCRTU $ ’21s into TCZIRA $ ’21s
  • VAKBN $ sub ’22s into VAKBN $ ’21s

(Bloomberg) -- Global risk aversion theme sends investors scuttling into CHF, JPY and EUR while AUD, MXN and KRW tumbles after ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll showed Trump in lead over Clinton. Kiwi bucks trend as jobs data suggest RBNZ may be done with rate cuts after its next decision; story here

• Treasury 10-year yield down 1bp to 1.817%; S&P 500 futures falls for third day, down 0.3%
• 370 economists released a letter on Tuesday explaining why electing Donald Trump would be a mistake; see story here
• AUD/USD -0.33% to 0.7627 vs 0.7613-0.7659 range
  • Fast money turning risk-off as MXN weakens, traders say
  • AUD/JPY sold by hedge funds, banks as equities slide
• NZD/USD +0.49% to 0.7219 vs 0.7181-0.7222 range
  • Kiwi surged through overnight high, option selling at 0.7200 on release of solid 3Q employment data, trader says
  • Bank of New Zealand sees rate cut next week, but no longer in 2017 following stronger-than-expected labor market data and a spike in global dairy prices; story here
  • New Zealand 3Q unemployment rate at 4.9% vs est. 5.1%
• BBDXY falls for fourth day, down 0.01% to 1,204.60
• USD/JPY -0.36% to 103.78 vs 103.67-104.17 range
  • Selling is led by Asia-based leveraged accounts, partly in conjunction with selling of Nikkei index futures: trader
  • Trump risk, lower oil prices weigh on USD/JPY, IG Markets says
• GBP/USD little changed at 1.2239 vs 1.2221-1.2247 range
  • Hard Brexit likely given U.K., EU politics, Menon says
  • U.K. Chancellor said eyeing flexible autumn budget: FT
• NOTE: Mark Cranfield is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.

(Bloomberg) -- Here’s a roundup of Indian co. debt-rating changes.

• To get this story sent to your inbox real-time, run NI INRATINGS , click on Display & Edit, then Set Alert Delivery

UPGRADES

• Arkkays National Engineering and Foundry Co.
  • Long-term bank facilities raised to BBB- from BB+ at CARE
  • Cites significant improvement in performance
• Rakesh Folding Works
  • Long-term rating raised to B+ from B at Crisil
  • Cites improved financial risk profile due to equity infusion

(Bloomberg) -- Won and Aussie lead decline in the region as a tracking poll showing a Trump lead in the U.S. election spurs a sell-off of emerging-market assets.

• Betting odds have risen for Trump to win the presidential election, and fallen for Clinton to the lowest level since October 7, says Sue Trinh, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Markets are trading that as a risk-off move, with MXN bearing the brunt of it
• Risk aversion is gaining traction led by a spike in USD/MXN as ex-Asia buy stops triggered, say traders. USD/MXN up 0.6% to 19.3112, breaching 19.2679 New York high
  • MSCI Asia Pacific index falls as much as 1.1%, most since Sept. 30. Heavy equities attracting leverage selling of spot USD/JPY, while AUD/USD is weighed by macro flows versus JPY and NZD. traders say
  • Risk-off spurs gains in bond prices, with Australia 10- year yield dropping 4bps to 2.343%. Yield in Korea falls 5bps to 1.682%
  • Trump’s pledge for trade protectionism is particularly negative for Asia’s export-driven economies, says Scotiabank Asia FX strategist Gao Qi
• USD/JPY falls as much as 0.5% to 103.67, a second day of decline as investors sought safe-haven assets
  • USD/JPY may test the downside with next critical area at 103.50, says IG Markets. A break may lead toward 103
  • BOJ, which didn’t expand stimulus yesterday at its policy meeting, will probably maintain status quo unless yen surges, former board member Sayuri Shirai says on Bloomberg TV
  • AUD/JPY is being sold by hedge funds and banks, as Asian stock markets slide in the early session: FX traders
• Won plunges as much as 1.1%, with concerns over the developing scandal involving President Park’s friend adding weight to decline
  • President Park nominated a new prime minister and finance minister as she seeks to stem the fallout from an influence-peddling scandal threatening her grip on power
  • Recent developments add to the economic uncertainty, which may anchor short-term bond yields as well as lead to a weaker won, says Hong sup Shin, head of fixed income at Truston Asset Management
  • North Korea said to be prepping to launch ballistic missile in next 24-72 hours, Fox News says
• Southeast Asian currencies also decline
• Kiwi jumps after better-than-expected 3Q N.Z. jobless rate
  • Kiwi surged through the overnight high and option selling at 0.7200 on release of solid 3Q employment data: trader
  • RBNZ 4Q survey of businesses’ 2-year ahead inflation expectations is due at 3pm Wellington
• Onshore yuan gains after PBOC strengthens fixing by 0.3%
• U.S. political situation will swing market more than U.S. data in next few days, NAB head of markets strategy Christy Tan says; market isn’t convinced dollar weakness will sustain; buy USD/Asia on dip
  • USD/CNH could retreat to 6.7618 level in near term as pair crosses below 10-DMA first time in almost one month: Chart