Aussie to Find Floor Unless CPI Well Below Forecast: Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Aussie trendline support near 0.7545 should hold before and after 3Q CPI unless RBA’s preferred measure of inflation comes in much weaker than expected, writes Bloomberg strategist Michael G. Wilson.
- Today’s CPI figures will be the first to arrive under RBA Governor Lowe, who has signaled he’s in no rush to lift inflation toward the bank’s “flexible” target while emphasizing financial stability
- Last weekend, clearance rates at home auctions hit 80% nationwide, the highest since early 2015; that may stoke concerns about further rate cuts in an already heated property market
- Meanwhile, two of Australia’s biggest banks are said to be tightening mortgage standards to pare risk, and the govt is urging states to help bring home costs down after Sydney and Melbourne prices grew roughly 10% y/y in September
- Pressure for monetary easing might grow if CPI trimmed mean, the RBA’s preferred measure, comes in below 0.3% q/q; that’s the lowest forecast in Bloomberg’s survey
- A big undershoot could spur the RBA to lower its inflation projections and put a rate cut back on the table, which would likely drive AUD/USD below 0.7545 trendline support
- Only a slight miss could see Aussie dip to test the 0.7563 100-DMA and possibly trendline support
- 3Q inflation data is due at 11:30am Sydney, with median est. for trimmed mean CPI at 0.4% q/q in Bloomberg survey (range 0.3% to 0.7%); headline CPI is forecast at 0.5% q/q
- AUD/USD up 0.4% to 0.7640 heading in the last hour of New York trading
- NOTE: Michael G. Wilson is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own
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