Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s central bank signaling it may continue to gradually ease policy adds to positives for BRL that also include reforms and flows, analysts say.

• BCB reinforced view in last week’s statement that it isn’t satisfied with the slowdown in inflation, mainly in services prices, Gustavo Rangel, chief economist for Latam at ING Financial Markets LLC, says in a phone interview
• “The BCB has taken the tactical decision of telling market that the policy needs to be gradual and moderate”
  • BRL, buoyed by BCB policy and also optimism on reforms and flows derived from repatriation, may help to cut inflation forecasts
  • “The outlook for inflows has improved,” Rangel says
• BCB minutes, when warning that services inflation slowdown is not enough, raises the bar on conditions for an acceleration of rates cuts, Bruno Marques, fund manager at XP Macro, says
  • BCB likely be to more conservative, meticulous
  • Minutes are positive for BRL; BCB decision of not rolling over swaps was expected
• BRL gains reflects expectations of spending cap bill approval and that government will propose social security reform, Jankiel Santos, chief-economist at Haitong Securities do Brasil, says

Economic Release Details: {CONCCONF Index ECOD} --VINCE GOLLE

(Bloomberg) -- Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index seen at 101.5 in Oct. vs 104.1 in Sept. (forecast range 95.4 to 104.6); index based on random sample of ~3k households.

• Sept. reading was highest since Aug. 2007, reflecting optimism about labor market; assessment of present conditions also highest since 2007
• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index seen at -4 in Oct. vs. -8 in Sept. (forecast range -3 to -8); tracks sentiment among manufacturers in Virginia, Maryland, Carolinas, District of Columbia, most of West Virginia

(Bloomberg) -- With 2065 gilt syndication out of the way, limited supply pressure in coming weeks amid ongoing BOE QE purchases; recommend buying 10y gilt (09/2025) vs USTs (08/2026) ahead of BOE Inflation Report, RBC strategists, including Vatsala Datta, write in a client note.

• Expect the BOE to maintain a dovish bias at the Inflation Report next week; will look through the rise in short-term inflation
  • Economic activity has held in-line with BOE’s expectations and rhetoric from the bank has supported an easing bias
• Key risk to the trade is a squeeze in USTs heading into the U.S. Presidential election on Nov. 8, but with the polls increasingly becoming one-sided, see this as a relatively minor risk

(Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank’s supervisory board is set to discuss strategic alternatives for its Postbank operations on Wednesday, Reuters reports, citing unidentified people close to the bank.

• Deutsche Bank has mulled various options for unit, including full integration, sale or market listing
• NOTE: Oct. 20, Deutsche Bank Investors Press Lender to Sharpen Focus
• NOTE: Sept. 27, Deutsche Bank Keeps Target of Selling Postbank: Bild

Economic Release Details: {SPCSUSAY Index ECOD} --VINCE GOLLE

Economic Release Details: {SPCS20Y% Index ECOD} --VINCE GOLLE

(Bloomberg) -- S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Composite 20-City Home Price Index seen rising 5% y/y in Aug. after increasing 5.02% in July (forecast range +4.8% to +5.13%).

• M/m index seen rising 0.15% in Aug. after falling 0.01% in July (forecast range -0.02% to +0.5%)
• NOTE: Index based on three-month avg; covers Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, San Diego, San Francisco, Washington, D.C., Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Portland, Seattle, Tampa
• FHFA House Price Index seen rising 0.4% in Aug. after increasing 0.5% in July (forecast range +0.3% to +0.7%)