Aussie May Test Trendline Top on Quality of Jobs Data: Analysis
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
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(Bloomberg) -- AUD/USD could test trendline resistance near 0.7700 if September’s full-time job creation and participation rate rebound, writes Bloomberg strategist Michael G. Wilson.
Alert: HALISTER1- Median est. in Bloomberg survey is for 15k added jobs, after a 3.9k contraction in Aug., based on poll of 27 economists; range: -7.4k to +30k; unemployment rate is seen ticking higher to 5.7% from 5.6%; RBA’s Lowe estimated on Tuesday that full employment would be 5%
- Data due Thursday, 11:30am Sydney
- August’s participation rate of 64.7% was below the five-year average of 64.9%, and investors will watch for any improvement
- The quality of new jobs will also be important: Growth in full-time positions over the last 12 months is just a quarter of what it was a year earlier, which may herald weaker consumption, according to Bloomberg Intelligence
- Yellen’s comments last week about possibly allowing U.S. economy to “run hot” have prompted carry-trade inflows, further underpinning AUD
- AUD/USD is up 0.3% to 0.7685 after adding 0.5% overnight
- Minutes of October RBA meeting cited reasonable prospects for growth and waning headwinds from the drop in mining investment
- NOTE: Michael G. Wilson is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
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UUID: 7947283