Global Real Rates ‘Are Ready to Rise,’ BofA’s Harris Says
(Bloomberg) -- Several of the factors responsible for the “the long downward slide in both short and long real rates” are reversing course, Ethan Harris, head of global economics research at BofA, says in note.
- Real rates began to “drift down toward their historical average” during the 1990s as central banks regained anti-inflation credibility, and declined further in the early 2000s when U.S. and global trend growth slowed; they remained low despite rate increases by Fed, other banks amid a surge in savings across EM led by China
- After the financial crisis, real rates faced pressure from the shortage of safe assets as AAA-rated supply was wiped out, aggravated by central bank QE
- Now “the savings glut is gradually disappearing” owing to demographic and FX policy shifts in China, and shortage of safe assets will ease as central banks move toward policy shifts
- Trend growth appears likely to weaken further, but has “very weak” correlation with real rates
- “Timing is tough, but the preponderance of evidence points to rising, not falling, equilibrium real rates in the coming years”
To contact the reporter on this story: Elizabeth Stanton in New York at estanton@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Boris Korby at bkorby1@bloomberg.net Vivien Lou Chen
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