HALISTER: Wells Fargo CEO Takes Beating as Lawmakers Demand Accountability

Wells Fargo CEO Takes Beating as Lawmakers Demand Accountability

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
10182Z US (PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP)
WFC US (Wells Fargo & Co)

People
John Stumpf (Wells Fargo & Co)
Carrie Tolstedt (Wells Fargo & Co)
Claudia Anderson (Wells Fargo & Co)
Elizabeth Warren (United States Senate)
James Dimon (JPMorgan Chase & Co)

Topics
BGOV Finance
BGOV Legislation

To de-activate this alert, click here
To modify this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Fair Isaac Corporation - Rating Report

Fair Isaac Corporation - Rating Report

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: DBR (Dominion Bond Rating Service)

Tickers
FICO US (Fair Isaac Corp)

People
Anil Passi (DBRS Ltd)
Michael Goldberg (DBRS Ltd)

Topics
Fixed Income Research
Credit Analysis Research
Credit Research
Investment Research
Issuer Focused Research

To de-activate this alert, click here
To modify this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: RESEARCH ROUNDUP: FOMC’s Dots to Fall, Point to 1 Hike by Yr-End

RESEARCH ROUNDUP: FOMC’s Dots to Fall, Point to 1 Hike by Yr-End

(Bloomberg) -- (Adds BNP, RBC, RBS to item that moved on Sept. 19.)
  • FOMC seen as keeping rates unchanged on Sept. 21 for 6th straight meeting and suggesting one rate increase by year- end, with median dots through 2018 expected to drop, based on published research from economists and strategists.
  • Most expect a December move, with Barclays and BNP holding out for a hike this week
  • Market-implied probabilities stand at ~22% and ~30% for FOMC’s September and November meetings and above 55% for December; fed funds futures not fully pricing next rate increase until mid-2017
  • Barclays (Michael Gapen, Rob Martin, Blerina Uruci)
    • Fed to hike this week, yet it’s “close call;” case for action isn’t “iron clad”
    • Worries about inflation, unwillingness to “buck” mkt pricing could lead FOMC to pause in favor of a “strong” signal of hike by yr-end
    • Outlook has evolved in way that “clears” FOMC’s threshold for action
    • FOMC will have to ignore mkt pricing no matter when it moves
    • MORE
  • BNP (economists led by Paul Mortimer-Lee)
    • Fed to hike by 25bps this week, with decision a “close call”
    • Lower long-run dot and indications of no more hikes this year “could soften the blow”
    • If Fed doesn’t hike, it will likely try to convey a “hawkish pause,” with upgraded economic assessment and conclusions that risks are “almost balanced”
    • MORE
  • BofAML (Michelle Meyer, Ian Gordon, Mark Cabana)
    • Fed to skip rate increase this week and give “cautiously upbeat assessment,” which should lead to modestly higher front-end/real rates and mildly support USD
    • Yellen likely to make case for hike by yr-end during press conference, with emphasis on need to see continued data improvement
    • Median dot will move down to 0.625% from 0.875% in June; BofAML still expects 3 hikes in 2017 and 2018, bringing median forecasts to 1.375% and 2.125% respectively
    • MORE
  • Citi (Jabaz Mathai, Steve Kang, Jason Williams)
    • Expectations for a rate hike “extinguished effectively” by Fed Gov. Lael Brainard in recent speech; FOMC will pass on rate action this wk
    • Outright long position in FFV6 is a trade that can be justified; second trade is to pair long FFV6 with short FFF7
  • Deutsche Bank (researchers/economists led by Dominic Konstam and Joseph LaVorgna)
    • Statement may be “relatively hawkish,” despite rates remaining unchanged, if policy makers are determined to act by yr-end
    • Only minor adjustments seen to estimates for GDP, employment and inflation; shallower projected path for fed funds rate would be consistent with recent Fed commentary
    • Fed’s “hawkish hold” for September, along with potential for BOJ move on short rates and shift in QE, might be consistent with a steeper curve
  • JPMorgan (Mika Inkinen, Antoine Gaveau)
    • “Little reason” to change view that FOMC will remain on hold in September, hike in December
    • Modest changes seen in statement to reflect that risks to outlook have diminished or are nearly balanced
    • “Would not be surprised” to see at least one FOMC member expecting no hikes this yr, given Brainard’s recent remarks; more than 4 members expecting no hike “would pose some risks to our December call”
  • RBC (Tom Porcelli, Jacob Oubina)
    • FOMC may not be able to say near-term risks have diminished
    • Recent data calls into questions veracity of 2H rebound in economic growth and momentum in wage/price inflation
    • Risks of some near-term slowing are “non-trivial”
    • MORE
  • RBS (strategists led by John Briggs)
    • FOMC will leave December in play via dot plot, with “little risk” to U.S. bond market
    • Investors should buy UST 7Y “on a knee-jerk bearish move” in reaction to either BOJ or FOMC outcomes
    • MORE
  • Renaissance Macro Research (Neil Dutta)
    • BOJ’s Sept. 21 policy decision is “source of uncertainty” for Fed; main issue is extent to which BOJ is willing to commit to its 2% inflation objective
    • BOJ “disappointment” and balanced Fed risk assessment would likely lead to “significant flight to quality” across global asset mkts
    • FOMC “highly unlikely” to hike on Wed., though likely to move once by yr-end; little to warrant “meaningful” reassessment of current economic conditions in 1st paragraph of statement
  • UBS (Drew Matus, Samuel Coffin, Dave Liang)
    • FOMC to keep rates unchanged and reduce number of 2016 hikes in dots to just 1, mitigating impact of a hawkish statement; should also point to move in December
    • Projected path of rates in 2017 and 2018 should move lower, to 1.375% and 2.125% respectively; UBS still expects 2 more hikes in 2017
    • MORE
  • Wrightson ICAP (Lou Crandall)
    • Fed’s window of opportunity to hike is already closed
    • Ambiguity in near-term direction of data makes this a “ticklish” time to announce a hike
    • Will be hard for FOMC to be “overly hawkish” since statement will need to explain why policy makers aren’t hiking this month
    • Statement could be “neutral,” with Yellen delivering “close but not quite there yet” message
    • MORE
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Antoine Gaveau (JPMorgan Chase & Co)
Blerina Uruci (Barclays PLC)
David Liang (UBS Securities LLC)
Dominic Konstam (Deutsche Bank AG)
Drew Matus (UBS Asset Management Japan Ltd)

To de-activate this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Babcock International Group PLC - Rating Report

Babcock International Group PLC - Rating Report

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: DBR (Dominion Bond Rating Service)

Tickers
BAB LN (Babcock International Group PLC)

People
Gregory Pau (DBRS Ltd)
Kam Hon (DBRS Ltd)

Topics
Fixed Income Research
Industrials
Credit Analysis Research
Credit Research
Industrial Services

To de-activate this alert, click here
To modify this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283