HALISTER1: BlackRock Says Emerging Markets Among Best Hideouts From Fed

BlackRock Says Emerging Markets Among Best Hideouts From Fed

(Bloomberg) -- Global yield scarcity and recovery in EM fundamentals boost appeal, managing directors Pablo Goldberg and Sergio Trigo Paz say in an e-mailed note.
  • EMD is among the few asset classes that may best cushion a move by the Fed to resume gradual pace of policy normalization
  • While ‘great migration’ of funds toward EM debt continues investors should focus on relative value; active duration management becomes more important
  • “Active, bottom-up driven positioning” may be key to excess returns
  • BlackRock prefers countries with either strong fiscal positions or room to maneuver, and those that can actually deliver on reform
  • EMD corporates present a “solid hunting ground”
  • Local currency debt provides greater potential
  • At the macro level, investors should focus on growth, inflation divergence, fiscal discipline, exports
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
BLK US (BlackRock Inc)

People
Pablo Goldberg (BlackRock Inc)
Sergio Trigo Paz (BlackRock Inc)

To de-activate this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Dutch Issuance Plans May Be Unchanged on Better Budget: ABN Amro

Dutch Issuance Plans May Be Unchanged on Better Budget: ABN Amro

(Bloomberg) -- The stronger-than-expected improvement in the 2016 budget deficit will likely mean an unchanged bond issuance target, ABN Amro analyst Kim Liu writes in client note.
  • The Dutch State Treasury Agency will update its target, currently EU25b to EU30b, on Friday; expect two further auctions of the 10Y benchmark in 4Q
  • Dutch 10Y yield spread to end year at 15bps, slightly above current levels
  • NOTE: ING had expected higher funding needs to translate into DSL issuance target of EU35b-37.5b, up from EU25b-30b
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Kim Liu (ABN AMRO Group NV)

To de-activate this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: UST Curve May Flatten Should Fed’s Dots Drop, BMO Says

UST Curve May Flatten Should Fed’s Dots Drop, BMO Says

(Bloomberg) -- UST curve could flatten on any drop in Fed’s dots, as well as any hawkish speak from Yellen’s press conference tomorrow, BMO strategists Aaron Kohli and Dan Belton said in note.
  • Front-end will primarily respond to Fed’s “timing impulse,” the result of which will be flattening, especially if 25bp are removed from all median SEP rate projections
    • BMO looking for one rate hike to be removed from 2016 dots, since there’s no additional time for hikes; also expect at least one hike cut from 2017; would be “reasonable” to see 2018 dots fall by 25bp
  • Depending on how strong the Fed emphasizes December, there may be “minor curve moves”
  • Looking at year-end, Fed may be “facing a hangover” from November election, along with possible stresses on financials as Libor rises
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Aaron Kohli (Bank of Montreal)
Daniel Belton (Bank of Montreal)

To de-activate this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283