HALISTER1: RBNZ’s Efforts to Weaken Kiwi May Be in Vain for Now: Analysis

RBNZ’s Efforts to Weaken Kiwi May Be in Vain for Now: Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- After closing above 50-DMA for more than 50 days, NZD/USD may test 16-month high near term with several significant drivers in play ahead of the RBNZ rate decision Thursday, Bloomberg strategist Michael G. Wilson writes.
  • Main catalysts are dairy auction, BOJ and Fed
  • Tonight’s dairy auction looks strong, with whole milk powder futures climbing as much as $100 today to $3,000 per metric ton
    • NOTE: Kiwi bid as milk rises; NZD/USD is up 0.4% at 0.7319
    • Pair hit 0.7486 on Sept. 7, highest since May 2015
  • Events this week appear kiwi bullish:
  • Whole milk powder price may breach 11-mo. high of $2,824/mt at auction tonight; avg winning price at last auction on Sept. 6 was $2,793
    • Fonterra may increase milk price forecasts at annual results presentation Thursday morning
  • In Japan, BOJ could enact further stimulus in view of possible patient Fed; this would be bullish for carry trade
  • And there are USD bearish factors too:
  • Fed may soften dot plots at FOMC meeting; market sees Yellen on hold
  • RBNZ OCR decision comes after, on Sept. 22 at 9am local time
  • In his statement following 25-bp rate cut on Aug. 11, RBNZ Governor Wheeler said kiwi needed to decline; since then it has risen 1.5% vs USD
  • RBNZ is expected to keep benchmark rate at 2.0% on Thursday, according to all 16 economists in Bloomberg survey
  • WIRP pricing for cut at only 13.1% vs 33.0% a month ago
    • Expectations for Nov. cut have also been dialed back; odds now seen at 49.8% vs 75.4% on Aug. 12, day after RBNZ last cut rates
  • Attempts by RBNZ to import inflation via weaker currency could fail as NZD remains strong
  • NOTE: Michael G. Wilson is a FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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HALISTER1: INSIDE ASIA: Asian Currencies Mixed Before BOJ, Fed Decisions

INSIDE ASIA: Asian Currencies Mixed Before BOJ, Fed Decisions

(Bloomberg) -- Asian currencies traded mixed ahead of the Fed and BOJ policy decisions tomorrow, with the Kiwi and Taiwan dollar leading gains.
  • USD will probably trade range bound before the central bank decisions, says Roy Teo, ABN Amro senior FX strategist
    • BOJ may deepen negative rates to -0.2%, and also steepen the yield curve which would lead to higher USD/JPY
    • Though Fed is expected to hold rates this week, it may raise in December, says Teo
  • NZD/USD hits session highs, rising as much as 0.4%, as milk futures climb to $3,000 per metric ton ahead of tonight’s GlobalDairyTrade auction
    • Recent trading in NZX WMP futures suggests 14.7% increase in GDT WMP result, says Mike McIntryre, director and head of derivatives at First NZ Capital Group
  • Aussie pares gains as macro accounts sold the currency, according to an Asia-based FX trader. RBA September minutes released today says policy stance is consistent with meeting CPI target
  • Taiwan dollar continues gains after investors bought shares of Apple manufacturers
  • Yen rises as BOJ starts two-day meeting
    • JGB yield curve is twisting steeper through BOJ meeting, see chart. Should BOJ normalize yield curve by reducing purchases of longer-maturity bonds to lift financial institutions’ lending rates, that could boost USD/JPY
    • Still, Deutsche says any yen weakening on BOJ “operation twist” could to be short-lived
    • BTMU expects cautious Fed and BOJ could send yen higher, dollar lower
  • Japan 30-year govt. bond yield drops 4 bps to 0.51%, while Australia 10-year sovereign bond yield rises 2 bp to 2.135%. Yield on China 2.74% govt bond due August 2026 falls 2 bps to 2.750%
  • Offshore yuan falls for a third day as investors took advantage of easing liquidity to sell down the currency
    • CNH drops as much as 0.1% as tussle over direction of yuan continues with PBOC strengthening the reference rate by the most in two weeks
    • Average investors tend to sell yuan when it stabilizes as the consensus in the market is that it will fall in the long term, BBVA chief Asia economist Xia Le says
    • There was steady USD/CNH buying from banks and leveraged accounts in early session as day-to-day forwards ease slightly, according to FX traders in North Asia
    • Yuan to stay basically stable at reasonable and balanced level, Xinhua News Agency reported, citing Premier Li in meeting with U.S. President Obama
    • China’s YTD FX outflow more than suggested by PBOC FX reserves data: Goldman
  • Korean won, Singapore dollar, peso and ringgit decline
  • Peso heads for a fourth day of decline as capital outflows from equity market hit longest streak since 2008
    • BOP surplus forecast of $2b for this year “within reach” even with outflows and uncertain global environment, BSP Governor Tetangco said yesterday
    • BSP seen holding overnight borrowing rate at 3% by all 15 economists in Bloomberg survey; decision due on Sept. 22
  • Rupiah rises for fourth day
    • Indonesia to relax rule on issuing REITs to support tax amnesty, says Nurhaida, head of capital-market supervision,
    • BI wants low interest rates, while needing to make hard choices related to macroeconomic condition, senior deputy Governor Mirza Adityaswara said yesterday. BI is scheduled to meet on Sept. 22
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Roy Teo (ABN AMRO Group NV)
Barack Obama (United States of America)

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HALISTER1: INDIA RATINGS: Micro Therapeutic Cut; Trent Hypermarket Raised

INDIA RATINGS: Micro Therapeutic Cut; Trent Hypermarket Raised

(Bloomberg) -- Here’s a roundup of Indian co. debt-rating changes.
  • To get this story sent to your inbox real-time, run NI INRATINGS , click on Display & Edit, then Set Alert Delivery
DOWNGRADES
  • Micro Therapeutic
    • Long-term bank facilities cut to D from BBB- at Care
    • Cites delay in debt servicing due to strained liquidity position
UPGRADES
  • Ahluwalia Contracts
    • LT bank facilities raised to A from A- at Care
    • Cites healthy profitability margins, improvement in solvency position
  • CL Gupta Exports
    • LT bank facilities raised to A- from BBB+ at Care
    • Cites improvement in operational performance
  • Trent Hypermarket
    • NCDs raised to AA+(SO) from AA(SO) at Care
    • Cites revision in rating of guarantor Trent Ltd.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
TRENT IN (Trent Ltd)
AHLU IN (Ahluwalia Contracts India Ltd)
0285623D IN (CL Gupta Exports Ltd)
0180379D IN (Trent Hypermarket Pvt Ltd)

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HALISTER1: Rizal Bank Confident Complaints Vs. Officials Will Be Dismissed

Rizal Bank Confident Complaints Vs. Officials Will Be Dismissed

(Bloomberg) -- Rizal Commercial Banking has fully cooperated with Anti-Money Laundering Council in probe of $81m Bangladesh heist, and is confident any complaint against its officers will be dismissed on merits, Philippine lender says in stock exchange filing.
  • Should any complaint be filed, RCBC officers to file answers
  • NOTE: Anti-Laundering Body Building More Cases on Heist Link
  • Link to Statement:Link
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
RCB PM (Rizal Commercial Banking Corp)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Taiwan to Review Govt Officials Responsibility in Mega Bank Case

Taiwan to Review Govt Officials Responsibility in Mega Bank Case

(Bloomberg) -- Govt task force will review the responsibilities of the heads of Financial Supervisory Commission and Ministry of Finance in Mega Bank’s violation of New York State’s anti-money laundering laws, according to e-mailed statement from Executive Yuan.
  • Ministers can’t argue they weren’t informed and accountable of the case, which happened in 2012-2014: statement
  • NOTE: Mega Fined $180m by N.Y. Over Anti-Money Laundering Law Link
  • NOTE: Taiwan Premier Asks Task Force to Probe Mega Case Details Link
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
2886 TT (Mega Financial Holding Co Ltd)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: HSBC’s Wong Sees More Banking Regulations Emerging: The Bulletin

HSBC’s Wong Sees More Banking Regulations Emerging: The Bulletin

(Bloomberg) -- HSBC hired 7,000 compliance people globally since end-2014 to meet new standards against money laundering and financial crime, Asia-Pacific CEO Peter Wong tells The Bulletin, monthly magazine published by Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce.
  • Corporate applicants need to fulfill all requirements to set up an account
    • “We need to know all about the company’s business -– where is the money coming from, what businesses is the company dealing with, and where is the money going?”
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
HSBA LN (HSBC Holdings PLC)

People
Peter Wong (Hongkong & Shanghai Banking Corp Ltd/The)
Wong Tung Shun (HSBC Life Intl Ltd)

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HALISTER1: DBRS PPP Fact Sheet

DBRS PPP Fact Sheet

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: DBR (Dominion Bond Rating Service)

Tickers
0606688D CN (407 East Development Group General Partnership)
1513Z CN (407 International Inc)
0533779D CN (Acces Recherche Montreal SEC)
0533780D CN (CSS FSCC Partnership)
0607103D CN (Capital City Link General Partnership)

People
Grant Headrick (DBRS Ltd)
Masaaki Iwamoto (Nikko Asset Management Co Ltd)
Megumi Todori (North Pacific Bank Ltd)
Paul Seet (Jump Trading LLC)

Topics
Fixed Income Research
Industry & Sector Research
Credit Analysis Research
Credit Research
Investment Research

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: Intel Appoints Former EBay CFO Bob Swan as New Finance Chief

Intel Appoints Former EBay CFO Bob Swan as New Finance Chief

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
INTC US (Intel Corp)
EBAY US (eBay Inc)
17757Z US (General Atlantic LLC)

People
Robert Swan (General Atlantic LLC)
Stacy Smith (Intel Corp)
Brian Krzanich (Intel Corp)

Topics
Management Changes

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UUID: 7947283