Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- If economic growth slows in 2Q, it could pressure Thai central bank to ease rates further, pushing the baht down, Bloomberg strategist Andrew Robinson writes.

• Growth probably rose 3.3% y/y after 3.2% expansion in 1Q, Bloomberg survey shows; ests. range from 2.7% to 3.9%; data due 9:30am local time
  • Top forecaster ranked by Bloomberg sees 2.7% y/y growth
  • Consumer confidence fell steadily in 2Q, dropping from 73.5 at end-March to two-year low of 71.6 at end-June
• Govt asked state enterprises to accelerate spending in final three months of fiscal 2016 ending Sept., Deputy PM Somkid Jatusripitak said on Aug. 10
• Central bank last eased policy rate in April 2015, a surprise 25 bp cut to 1.50%; next meeting is Sept. 14; 2 of 11 economists predict a 25 bp cut; rest see no change
• USD/THB steady at 34.781 today; could rise to 50-DMA of 35.074 near term if data disappoint
• NOTE: Andrew Robinson is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.

(Bloomberg) -- Emerging market debts offer more than 2 percentage points in real yield advantage over their G-10 contemporaries, a hefty sum that may ensure continued inflows into their markets, thanks to unprecedented monetary stimulus in developed economies.

• Emerging markets yield 240 bps more than G-10 after inflation at end-July, most on the time series that began in Jan. 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg
• The world’s 10 biggest emerging markets command an avg 10-yr real yield of 2.07% compared with G-10 economies which ‘yield’ -0.34%
• Slow Fed rate hikes and continued accommodative stance among other major central banks will probably spur investors to pour more funds into EMs, says Takahide Irimura, economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management
  • “Countries like Indonesia and Brazil that saw sell-offs last year are relatively cheap and their fundamentals are improving, attracting fund inflows,” Tokyo-based Irimura says
  • Some investors may prefer higher yields even as they come with the occasional volatility
• Global funds have bought $7.8b of Indonesia’s govt bonds so far this year, already surpassing last year’s total, as July inflation is slowest since 2010 when the time series began
  • They’ve also bought $10b in South Korean debt and $9.5b in Thai bonds
• In Brazil where policy rate is set at 14.25%, overseas investors’ debt purchases reached $16.0b in 2016, on course for first annual net inflows since 2005
  • Brazilian real’s 3-mo. implied volatility is 17%, higher than any G-10 currencies
• NOTE: EMs include China, India, Brazil, South Korea, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, Poland and Thailand

Economic Release Details: {JGDPAGDP Index ECOD}

Economic Release Details: {JGDPQGDP Index ECOD}

(Bloomberg) -- In final stages of retrieving $15m of the $81m stolen reserve funds, Bangladesh’s central bank says in statement.

• Bangladesh Bank working closely with Philippines’ Department of Justice and Anti-Money Laundering Council: statement
• Philippines’ Department of Justice to file appeal to court between Aug. 16 and Aug. 30 on behalf of Bangladesh Bank for return of $15m: statement
• NOTE: Bangladesh officials had asked Philippines to help recover $81m stolen funds that found their way to Philippines in February
• NOTE: Bangladesh Withholds Heist Probe Info to Avoid Tip Off: Reuters