HALISTER1: FOMC’s July Minutes May Start Clock on Dec. Rate Hike: UBS

FOMC’s July Minutes May Start Clock on Dec. Rate Hike: UBS

(Bloomberg) -- FOMC appears to be preparing mkts for rate hike later this yr, given July statement “marked the return of the risk statement,” UBS economists Drew Matus, Dave Liang and Samuel Coffin write in note.
  • Reference to near-term risks as having diminished is FOMC’s 1st statement of risks since Dec.
  • If UBS is correct, July was “start of the clock” for a yr- end rate hike
    • Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech next wk should reinforce that view before Sept. mtg
  • FOMC’s Sept. statement and projections should confirm that Dec. hike is most likely scenario
  • Views of SF Fed Pres. John Williams aren’t likely to significantly alter Fed’s near-term policy path, even if he was asking for an immediate shift
    • NOTE: In economic letter released Mon. by SF Fed, Pres. John Williams calls for possible higher inflation target or nominal GDP targeting to mitigate impact from lower natural rate of interest
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Drew Matus (UBS Asset Management Japan Ltd)
Samuel Coffin (UBS Global Asset Management Japan Ltd)
David Liang (UBS Securities LLC)
John Williams (Upland Resources Inc)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: AIG to Sell United Guaranty to Arch Capital Group for $3.4b

AIG to Sell United Guaranty to Arch Capital Group for $3.4b

(Bloomberg) -- AIG says total consideration for deal is $3.4b, consisting of $2.2b of cash, $250m of newly issued Arch perpetual preferred stock, and $975m of newly issued Arch convertible non-voting common-equivalent preferred stock.
  • See earlier, Arch Capital Climbs; Close to Buying AIG Mortgage Unit, DJ Says
  • Statement:Link
Alert: HALISTER
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
AIG US (American International Group Inc)
ACGL US (Arch Capital Group Ltd)

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UUID: 7947283

(2) *AIG TO SELL UNITED GUARANTY TO ARCH CAPITAL FOR $3.4B CASH/STK

*AIG TO SELL UNITED GUARANTY TO ARCH CAPITAL FOR $3.4B CASH/STK

Alerts: HALISTER, HALISTER1
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
AIG US (American International Group Inc)
ACGL US (Arch Capital Group Ltd)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Yellen ‘May Borrow’ From Bernanke for Jackson Hole: Renaissance

Yellen ‘May Borrow’ From Bernanke for Jackson Hole: Renaissance

(Bloomberg) -- Fed Chair Janet Yellen “may borrow from Bernanke’s blog” post last week about the drop in the Fed’s expectation for the forward path of U.S. rates, Renaissance Macro Research economist Neil Dutta writes in note.
  • NOTE: Yellen is scheduled to speak at annual Jackson Hole symposium on Aug. 26
  • In Aug. 8 blog, Bernanke ascribed decline in Fed’s expectation of forward path of rates to 3 factors: lower long-run potential growth, lower natural rate of unemployment, lower neutral rates
    • While view doesn’t call for “wholesale break” from Fed’s current strategy, Bernanke concluded that implications “are generally dovish”
  • Notably absent from Bernanke’s blog was any mention of USD
    • With monetary policy outside U.S. still quite easy, there’s a risk that Fed hikes may translate more rapidly into USD appreciation
    • “We suspect this is now the consensus view on the FOMC, resulting in a very cautious approach to future rate hikes”
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Ben Bernanke (Brookings Institution/The)
Janet Yellen (Federal Reserve System)
Neil Dutta (Renaissance MacRo Research LLC)

Topics
BGOV Finance

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Canadian Master Trust, Series A Notes, Transaction 20 Summary

Canadian Master Trust, Series A Notes, Transaction 20 Summary

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: DBR (Dominion Bond Rating Service)

Tickers
1209Z CN (Canadian Master Trust)

People
Jamie Feehely (DBRS Ltd)
Tim O'Neil (DBRS Ltd)

Topics
Fixed Income Research
Reports
Credit Analysis Research
Credit Research
Investment Research

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: DBRS: Equitable Group Net Income Growth in Q2 2016; Shift in Asset Mix and Funding

DBRS: Equitable Group Net Income Growth in Q2 2016; Shift in Asset Mix and Funding

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: DBR (Dominion Bond Rating Service)

Tickers
EQB CN (Equitable Group Inc)

People
Maria-Gabriella Khoury (DBRS Inc)

Topics
Fixed Income Research
Reports
Research Comments
Credit Analysis Research
Credit Research

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: National Bank of Canada - DBRS Rating Report

National Bank of Canada - DBRS Rating Report

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: DBR (Dominion Bond Rating Service)

Tickers
NA CN (National Bank of Canada)

People
Maria-Gabriella Khoury (DBRS Inc)

Topics
Fixed Income Research
Credit Analysis Research
Credit Research
Investment Research
Issuer Focused Research

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UUID: 7947283