HALISTER1: USD/TWD Forwards Could Rise to 21-DMA on Weak Exports: Analysis

USD/TWD Forwards Could Rise to 21-DMA on Weak Exports: Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- A steeper-than-expected decline in Taiwan’s exports in July could be the trigger for USD/TWD 1-mo. NDF to rebound to 21-DMA of 31.882 in near term, Bloomberg strategist Andrew Robinson writes.
  • Exports probably fell 2.0% y/y following a 2.1% decline in June, median est. in Bloomberg survey shows; ests. range from -4.0% to -1.0%; data due at 4pm local time on Aug. 8
    • Another negative print for exports growth would be the 18th month in a row
  • Imports fell 5.0% y/y while trade surplus widened to $3.81b from $3.58b, median ests. in other surveys show
  • Central bank is likely to trim its policy rate by another 12.5 bps in 3Q as persistently contracting export orders impose downward pressure on the island’s economic growth, Scotiabank writes in note today
    • NOTE: Export orders fell 2.4% y/y in June, data released July 20 showed; that was 14th straight month of negative growth
  • 1-mo. NDF falls 0.5% to 31.365 after touching 31.330 earlier, weakest since July 2015
  • NOTE: Andrew Robinson is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Philippines to Toughen Nonbank Oversight for Money Laundering

Philippines to Toughen Nonbank Oversight for Money Laundering

(Bloomberg) -- Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to fortify oversight of nonbank financial institutions such as money changers and remittance cos. to strengthen anti-money laundering compliance, Deputy Governor Nestor Espenilla tells ABS-CBN News Channel in interview.
  • Move is part of package of initiatives that also include liberalization of foreign currency rules
  • Goal is not to starve nonbank money service businesses because they play role in financial inclusion
  • “Our economy has greatly progressed, our reserves are at a record high and transacting cross border is a legitimate undertaking of our corporates and citizens,” Espenilla said when asked whether looser FX rules will make it easier to take dollars out of country; “We should take a more liberal stance on this matter”
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Nestor Espenilla (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Sell OAT May 2045 ASW on Negative Seasonal Patterns: BNP

Sell OAT May 2045 ASW on Negative Seasonal Patterns: BNP

(Bloomberg) -- OAT ASW seasonal patterns suggest a cheapening in second half of August, especially in the OAT 30y bucket, BNP Paribas strategist Eric Oynoyan writes in client note.
  • Recent market positioning and valuation vs bund are not supportive for OATs in the near term
  • OATs have failed to richen further in spite of firmer risk assets until late July
  • Sell OAT May 2045 ASW at 16bp, add on a move to 11bp; target +25/28bp, stop 8bp
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Eric Oynoyan (BNP Paribas SA)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: Lafargeholcim 2Q Operating Ebitda Beats; Confirms 2016 Outlook

Lafargeholcim 2Q Operating Ebitda Beats; Confirms 2016 Outlook

(Bloomberg) -- LafargeHolcim 2Q net revenue falls 6.7% to CHF7.28b vs CHF7.62b est., down 2.1% on LFL basis.
  • 2Q operating Ebitda up 2.6% to CH1.71b vs CHF1.65b est.
  • Confirms 2016 outlook
  • CEO says without the effect of Nigeria, where its plants were affected by gas shortages, adjusted operating EBITDA would have increased by 13% in the quarter
  • Says exceeded divestment targets, extending program to CHF5b
  • Says macroeconomic risks continue to affect some markets, however, delivering on commitments and remains on track to achieve 2016 targets
Alert: HALISTER
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
LHN VX (LafargeHolcim Ltd)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: Allianz Second-Quarter Profit Falls on Higher Disaster Claims

Allianz Second-Quarter Profit Falls on Higher Disaster Claims

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
ALV GR (Allianz SE)
21429Z US (Pacific Investment Management Co LLC)

People
Bill Gross (Pacific Investment Management Co LLC)
Emmanuel Roman (Man Group PLC)
Jacqueline Hunt (Allianz SE)
Oliver Baete (Allianz SE)
William Gross (Janus Capital Management LLC)

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UUID: 7947283