HALISTER1: EU CREDIT DAILY: Feeling Stressed; EDF Beats, Barclays Misses

EU CREDIT DAILY: Feeling Stressed; EDF Beats, Barclays Misses

(Bloomberg) -- Disappointment in BOJ stimulus announced overnight likely to further damp credit-market sentiment into the month-end, as investors await EBA stress-test results this evening, Bloomberg strategist Simon Ballard writes.
  • Italy’s Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena expected to be at center of any negative consequences from stress tests
  • Still, robust technicals seen underpinning cash corporate credit spreads over the coming weeks, even if macro fundamental challenges may still be building
    • Alan Greenspan aired his concerns yday about over- stretched bond-market valuations, weak macroeconomics and the specter of stagflation, the nemesis of risk assets
    • Such concerns have been on many investors’ minds for months now; basis for quality bias in investment strategies
  • Recent compression in Risk Appetite Model reflects decline in volatility amid persistent investor appetite for yield
  • CDX IG closed -0.5bps at 79.69 in overnight session; iTraxx Asia Ex Japan IG currently +0.6bps at 120.44 and iTraxx Australia quoted +0.8bps at 110.00
NEWS
  • Corporate News
  • Wolters Kluwer Keeps 2016 Forecast; Raises Free Cash Guidance
  • Japan Airlines 1Q Net Income Drops 54.9%, Missing Estimate
  • IAG 2Q Earnings Misses Est; Sees Weaker Trading Environment inLo
  • UBM 1H Adj Operating Profit Up, Keeps Trading Outlook for Year
  • Sony Posts Surprise 1Q Profits, Maintains Earnings Outlook
  • Pearson Says Trading In Line With 2016 View; Keeps 2016 Forecast
  • Abertis 1H Net EU510M vs EU1.68B Year Earlier
  • Reckitt 2Q LFL Sales Miss Ests., 1H Adj. Operating Profit
  • Hitachi 1Q Net Income Rises 2.7%, Beating Estimate Beats
  • SES 1H Revenue Falls, Says Results in Line With Forecasts
  • Eni 2Q Adj. Net Loss From Continuing Operations; Div. In Line
  • Vinci First-Half Earnings Meets Estimates on Highways, Airports
  • Sanofi’s Profit Declines as Aging Drugs Face Competition
  • AB InBev 2Q Normalized Ebitda, Organic Sales Miss Estimates
  • EDF 1H Net Income Ex-Items Beats, Maintains 2016 Objectives
  • U.K. Casts Doubt on $24 Billion Nuclear Plan After EDF Approval
  • Mazda Motor 1Q Net Income Falls 42%, Misses Estimate
  • Financial News
  • Barclays 2Q Adj. Pretax Misses; CET1 Ratio Rises to 11.6%
  • UBS Quarterly Profit Falls 14% Amid Subdued Client Activity
  • Bank of Ireland 1H Underlying Profit EU560M Versus EU743M Y/Y
  • Swiss Re Quarterly Profit Falls on Higher Catastrophe Claims
  • Generali 2Q Profit Falls as Investment Income Drops
  • Credit Rating News
  • S&P Says Philippine Ratings Outlook Stable; Killings Unsettling
  • S&PGR Afrms Colonial First State Fund Rtgs At ’AAAm’, ’AAf’
  • Other News
  • Kuroda’s $26 Billion Gift to Stock Market Underwhelms Investors
  • Atlanta Fed Cuts U.S. GDP Forecast After Fresh Export Data
ANALYST VIEWS
  • The corporate bond market is not broken, doesn’t need fixing, and certainly does not need the heavy hand of (BOE) meddling and manipulation: creditmarketdaily.com
NEW ISSUES
  • Affordable Housing GBP191.4m 2043 Tap UKT +41
  • State of Hessen EU500m 20Y MS +3
  • European IG credit pipeline here and HY credit pipeline here
  • Issuers exposed to S-T rollover and interest-rate reset risk here
  • NOTE: Simon Ballard is a credit strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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HALISTER1: Europe’s Syndicated Bond Sales Beat ’15 on Yield Chase: Analysis

Europe’s Syndicated Bond Sales Beat ’15 on Yield Chase: Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- European syndicated new bond sales have totaled EU707.42b so far this year, outpacing the EU695.82b of issuance in the same period of 2015, as investors chase yields down the rating spectrum and along the maturity curve, Bloomberg strategists Simon Ballard and Paul Cohen write.
  • Cumulative year-to-date sales, which picked up after a slow start to the year amid China-related concerns, have been driven mainly by a 22% jump in SSA offerings to EU249.3bn
    • Corporate and financial issuance has trailed 2015, except at end-2Q when FIG was cumulatively 103.4% of last year’s volume
  • Despite increased supply, spreads are maintaining a bias to tighten on low interest rates and ECB’s corporate-debt purchases
    • Latest ECB CSPP data show holdings of EU11.849b, as of July 22, albeit with weekly purchases slowing amid a seasonal decline in liquidity
  • Risk assets’ demand-supply dynamics remain robust in spite of global macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, as ultra-loose monetary policy fuels consistent demand for yield and a steady compression of credit spreads
    • EUR IG OAS now ~47bps, vs Feb.’s wides of 102bps; EUR IG total return +5.78% YTD, GBP corporate index +12.29% YTD: BofAML data
    • Lower activity into the typical August lull should further support credit market demand-supply conditions
  • NOTE: Data cover new syndicated EUR, USD Reg S (Eurodollar) and GBP-denominated bonds sold in Europe with a maturity of at least 1.5Y and a minimum issue amount of EU100m
  • NOTE: Simon Ballard and Paul Cohen are credit strategists who write for Bloomberg. The observations they make are their own and are not intended as investment advice.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: Barclays 2Q Adj. Pretax Misses; CET1 Ratio Rises to 11.6%

Barclays 2Q Adj. Pretax Misses; CET1 Ratio Rises to 11.6%

(Bloomberg) -- Barclays 2Q adj. pretax GBP763m; est. GBP985m.
  • Pretax GBP2.06b vs GBP2.60b.
  • Core pretax GBP3.97b vs GBP3.35b
  • Attributable profit GBP1.11b vs GBP1.61b
  • Total operating expenses GBP7.17b vs GBP6.62b
  • Litigation, conduct provisions GBP525m vs GBP1.97b
  • CET1 ratio 11.6% vs 11.3% end-March
  • 9 buys, 14 holds, 4 sells: Bloomberg data
  • Stock down 33% YTD vs SX7P down 29%
  • Preview here
  • Statement
Alert: HALISTER
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
BARC LN (Barclays PLC)

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HALISTER: Sanofi 2Q Business EPS In Line; Keeps 2016 Forecast

Sanofi 2Q Business EPS In Line; Keeps 2016 Forecast

(Bloomberg) -- Sanofi still expects 2016 Business EPS to be broadly stable at constant FX, barring unforeseen major adverse events.
  • 2Q net sales (aggregate): EU8.87b vs est. EU8.99b
  • 2Q Business EPS: EU1.31 vs est. EU1.31
  • 2Q Business net income: EU1.68b vs est. EU1.69b
  • 2Q Global Business Unit Sales at constant FX:
    • Genzyme: EU1.25b, up 20%
    • Diabetes: EU1.6b, down 3.5%
    • General Medicines: EU4.5b, down 5.6%
    • Vaccines: EU797m, up 6.3%
    • Merial: EU725m, up 9.1%
  • 2Q worldwide drug sales:
    • Lantus: EU1.47b vs est. EU1.44b
    • Plavix: EU392m vs est. EU406.9m
    • Lovenox: EU414m vs est. EU411.1m
    • Fabrazyme: EU167m vs est. EU158.8m
    • Cerezyme: EU199m vs est. EU196m
    • Toujeo: EU141m vs est. EU125.3m
    • Aubagio: EU315m vs est. EU307.1m
    • Lemtrada: EU108m vs est. EU103.6m
    • Aprovel: EU175m vs est. EU186.5m
  • Conf. call/webcast at 2:30pm CET; dial-in: +33 (0) 1 70 91 87 06
  • NOTE: Yday, PREVIEW SANOFI 2Q: Spending on New Drugs, Generics to Weigh
Alert: HALISTER
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
SAN FP (Sanofi)

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