HALISTER1: INSIDE TAIWAN: TWD Rises After 2Q GDP Growth, BOJ Easing Package

INSIDE TAIWAN: TWD Rises After 2Q GDP Growth, BOJ Easing Package

(Bloomberg) -- TWD advances for fourth day, gaining along with Asian currencies after BOJ’s limited easing boosted JPY. Taiwan 2Q GDP rebounded from previous quarter’s contraction
  • TWD reached 31.872 vs USD, highest since Aug 2015, close 0.09% higher at 31.926; gained 0.45% this week
    • Overseas investors sells local shares for the first time since July 5; net selling NT$1.4b ($43.5m)
  • Sentiment in TWD may have been affected as BOJ’s easing package misses expectation, Maybank senior FX analyst Christopher Wong says
    • Yield-seeking investors may become selective
    • Key to watch oil price and equity market next week
  • Taiwan GDP grew 0.69% y/y in 2Q, vs est. 0.7% and -0.68% in 1Q
  • Statistics Bureau proposes +1.1% in 2017 govt spending
    • Govt revenue to increase 1.2%, deficit NT$153.6b
  • Taiwan 2Q GDP growth strong, may slowdown toward yr-end, ANZ economist Raymond Yeung says
  • Weak sequential growth in 2Q poses downside risks to full-yr GDP forecast of 1.1%, Goldman Sachs economists Irene Choi and Goohoon Kwon write in a note today
    • Expect CBC to hold back rate cut until 4Q 2017, on condition that Fed hikes 100 bps by end-2017
  • Yield of 10-yr govt bond rises 1 bp to 0.6856%
  • Local govt bonds are sold as BOJ easing disappoint; move in line with U.S. Treasury, Concord Securities bond trader Aaron Shie says
    • 10-yr note yield sees strong support at 0.68%-0.69% in near term
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Christopher Wong (Malayan Banking Bhd)
Goohoon Kwon (Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The)
Irene Choi (Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The)
Raymond Yeung (Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd)

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HALISTER1: SC Germany Auto 2016-2 UG (haftungsbeschränkt) - DBRS Presale Report

SC Germany Auto 2016-2 UG (haftungsbeschränkt) - DBRS Presale Report

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: DBR (Dominion Bond Rating Service)

People
Kevin Chiang (DBRS Ltd)
Paolo Conti (DBRS Inc)

Topics
Fixed Income Research
Reports
Credit Analysis Research
Credit Research
Investment Research

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HALISTER: Banks Embrace Their Fintech Disruptors, Finding Ways to Profit

Banks Embrace Their Fintech Disruptors, Finding Ways to Profit

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
JPM US (JPMorgan Chase & Co)
LC US (LendingClub Corp)
WFC US (Wells Fargo & Co)
AXP US (American Express Co)
ALLY US (Ally Financial Inc)

People
James Dimon (JPMorgan Chase & Co)
Blythe Masters (Digital Asset Holdings LLC)
Harit Talwar (Discover Financial Services)
Harvey Schwartz (Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The)

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HALISTER1: USD/IDR Forwards May Retest 2016 Low If CPI Beats Est.: Analysis

USD/IDR Forwards May Retest 2016 Low If CPI Beats Est.: Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- USD/IDR 1-mo. NDF may revisit the year’s low if Indonesia’s CPI fails to slow as economists predict, Bloomberg strategist Andrew Robinson writes.
  • Consumer prices probably rose 3.38% y/y following a 3.45% gain in June, median est. in Bloomberg survey shows; ests. range from 3.1% to 3.7%; data due on Aug. 1
  • Bank Indonesia sees July inflation at +3.6% y/y, Governor Martowardojo says
  • Firmer inflation could stall further BI easing; central bank held reference rate steady at 6.50% at July 21 meeting, when majority of economists in Bloomberg survey had expected a 25 bp cut
    • Separate Bloomberg survey shows median est. of economists predicting a 25 bp cut by year-end
  • 1-mo NDF could drop to 12,995, the 2016 low reached on March 17 and 18; currently +0.4% to 13,194
    • Slow stochastics %K line drops below %D line to 54
  • NOTE: Andrew Robinson is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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