HALISTER1: RESEARCH ROUNDUP: UST Yield Forecasts Cut Further

RESEARCH ROUNDUP: UST Yield Forecasts Cut Further

(Bloomberg) -- (Updates Citi, Nomura, Soc Gen forecasts in item that was published June 29.)
  • Most strategists’ end-2016 forecasts for UST 10Y yield now 1.25%-2.10% vs 2.25%-3% at start of year, when rising inflation expectations and heavy long-maturity credit issuance were expected to dominate
  • Forecasts underwent a round of cuts in Jan. and Feb. based on weak U.S. economic data, poor stock market performance and multi-year low oil prices
  • Latest forecast cuts followed drop to YTD lows, led by U.K. yields to record lows after unexpected vote in favor of exiting EU; UST 10Y and 30Y yields have since also fallen to record lows
  • 10Y yield began 2016 at about 2.25%; at that time, lowest forecasts were from Citi (2.30%) and Deutsche Bank (2.25%); among highest were from Goldman Sachs (3%) and Credit Suisse (2.95%)
  • BNP
    • 10Y yield forecast 1.60% since May 26; original forecast 2.75%; MORE
    • Recommended tactical long UST 10Y in April targeting 1.60%; revised target to 1.40% on June 16
  • BofAML
    • 10Y yield forecast cut to 1.50% on June 27; original forecast 2.65%
    • Predicted record low yields during 3Q followed by 4Q rebound; MORE
  • Citi
    • 10Y yield forecast cut to 1.60% on July 1 from 2.05%; original forecast 2.30%; MORE
  • Credit Suisse
    • 10Y yield forecast of 2% since Feb. 18 “is unlikely to be achieved”; MORE
  • Deutsche Bank
    • 10Y yield will trade around midpoint of 1.25% through 2H, strategists said June 24; original forecast 2.25%
  • Goldman Sachs
    • 10Y yield forecast 2% as of June 27; original forecast 3%; MORE
  • HSBC
    • 10Y yield forecast 1.50%; MORE
  • JPMorgan
    • 10Y yield forecast 1.70% affirmed June 24; original forecast 2.75%; MORE
  • Morgan Stanley
    • 10Y yield forecast 1.75% since March 14; will be reviewed soon, strategist Anton Heese said; MORE
  • Nomura
    • 10Y yield forecast cut to 1.75% on July 1; original forecast 2.5%
  • Societe Generale
    • 10Y yield forecast lowered to 1.50% on June 30, with 1.25% likely in 3Q; MORE
  • TD
    • 10Y yield forecast cut to 1.40% on June 24 vs 2.50% original forecast; end-2017 forecast set at 1.90%
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Anton Heese (Morgan Stanley)

To de-activate this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: Chevron Bets $37 Billion on Expansion as Oil Rises, Costs Fall

Chevron Bets $37 Billion on Expansion as Oil Rises, Costs Fall

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
CVX US (Chevron Corp)
XOM US (Exxon Mobil Corp)

People
Allen Good (Morningstar Investment Services Inc)
James Johnson (Chevron Corp)
John Watson (Chevron Corp)
Kanat Bozumbayev (Republic of Kazakhstan)
Paul Sankey (Wolfe Research LLC)

To de-activate this alert, click here
To modify this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283

(2) *M&G SUSPENDS TRADING IN M&G PROPERTY PORTFOLIO FUND

*M&G SUSPENDS TRADING IN M&G PROPERTY PORTFOLIO FUND

Alerts: HALISTER, HALISTER1
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
PRU US (Prudential Financial Inc)
PRU LN (Prudential PLC)
MGPTAAG LN (M&G Property Portfolio)

To de-activate the "HALISTER" alert, click here
To modify this alert, click here

To de-activate the "HALISTER1" alert, click here
To modify this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: U.K. DMO Considering Merits of Gilt Tender in Near Future

U.K. DMO Considering Merits of Gilt Tender in Near Future

(Bloomberg) -- DMO seeking market feedback on demand for such a tender, according to statement.
  • If demand exists, seeking recommendations on choice of gilts, size, and timing
  • Seeks views by noon on July 6
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

To de-activate this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: USTs Face Emerging Bearish Technical Signals, JPMorgan Says

USTs Face Emerging Bearish Technical Signals, JPMorgan Says

(Bloomberg) -- UST 10Y rally “shows signs of maturity as it probes the rich end” of 1.35%-1.70% range likely to persist through August, JPMorgan technical strategist Jason Hunter says in note.
  • “We are not fading the strength yet given the potential for the rally to end with a blow-off type reversal, but would enter a new short if the market started to back up through technical support”
  • 1.42% is “first line in the sand,” followed by 1.51%-1.55%, above which would confirm near-term trend reversal
  • Bearish signs include CFTC non-commercial positioning that is longest in months and T-note dollar-weighted put/call ratio
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Jason Hunter (Bear Stearns & Co Inc)

To de-activate this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283