HALISTER: UniCredit Turns to French Investment Banker to Instill Rigor (1)

UniCredit Turns to French Investment Banker to Instill Rigor (1)

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
GLE FP (Societe Generale SA)
UCG IM (UniCredit SpA)
615020Z FP (Kepler Cheuvreux SA)

People
Andrea Orcel (UBS Ltd)
Anna Benassi (Kepler Capital Markets/Zurich)
Antonio Guglielmi (Mediobanca SpA)
Fabrizio Viola (Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA)
Federico Ghizzoni (UniCredit SpA)

Topics
Who's News - People
Management Changes

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Municipal Market: Obama Signs Rescue

Municipal Market: Obama Signs Rescue

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BBF (Bloomberg Brief Newsletters)

People
Barack Obama (United States of America)
Alejandro Garcia Padilla (Commonwealth of Puerto Rico)
Bruce Rauner (State of Illinois)
Hillary Clinton (United States of America)
John Miller (Nuveen Investments Inc)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Pay EUR 1y1y OIS, Don’t Expect Removal of Depo Floor Rule: Citi

Pay EUR 1y1y OIS, Don’t Expect Removal of Depo Floor Rule: Citi

(Bloomberg) -- Don’t expect removal of depo rate ECB QE floor as the Bundesbank would then have deeper losses on its buying, Citigroup strategists including Harvinder Sian write in client note.
  • This is the dark side of risk segregation with the Buba having to account for the fiscal consequences of negative rate buying
  • Fiscal consequences of negative rate buying don’t have a backstop like the BOE indemnity from U.K. Treasury, so doubt the Buba would remove depo buying floor
  • Hard to see the ECB abandoning the capital key given the political attacks from German into an election year but there may be a fudge, for instance, redistributing any bund buying allocation that can’t be filled to other issuers using the ex-German capital key would be a neat solution
  • Pay 1y1y EUR OIS, target -0.42% with 3-mo. roll-up worth a favorable 1.3bp, stop at -0.56%, which would be equivalent to taking the depo rate below -0.60%
  • Risk is a signal by the ECB that Swiss levels of -0.75% are closer to the lower bound, reversing recent rhetoric and not being concerned regarding bank profitability
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
2539Z GR (European Central Bank)

People
Harvinder Sian (Citigroup Inc)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: INSIDE MALAYSIA: Ringgit Climbs; SocGen Sees Rate Cuts Ahead

INSIDE MALAYSIA: Ringgit Climbs; SocGen Sees Rate Cuts Ahead

(Bloomberg) -- Ringgit jumps, heading for biggest weekly gain in three months, amid risk-on sentiment across most Asian currencies.
  • Exports fell 0.9% y/y in May, missing median est. of 2% gain in Bloomberg survey; only one forecaster out of 17 had anticipated a decline in exports for the month
  • Imports rose 3.1% y/y vs median est. of 2.9% drop; as a result, trade surplus narrowed to 3.26b ringgit from 9.06b ringgit in April
  • Ringgit up 0.8% at 3.9980 per dollar; is up 2.3% so far this week, set for the biggest weekly gain since week ended April 1, according to onshore prices
    • USD/MYR resistance: 4.0452-61, convergence of 50- and 100-DMAs; 4.1690, 200-DMA
    • USD/MYR support: 3.9723, 61.8% Fibo retracement of rally from April 13 to June 2; 3.9625, April 18 high
  • Ringgit’s one-month forwards fall 0.3% to 4.0019 per dollar
  • Balance of evidence shifting in favor of looser monetary policy from Bank Negara, Societe Generale writes in note; says growth dynamics have deteriorated significantly, but core inflation probably needs to moderate further for BNM to ease in short term
    • Sees scope for 50 bps reduction in policy rate over the next year
    • Keeps recommendation to be long 7-yr MGS vs paying 7-yr MYR NDIRS; in FX still likes being short MYR vs IDR
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283