HALISTER1: MALAYSIA PREVIEW: Strong Exports Could Drive USD/MYR to June Low

MALAYSIA PREVIEW: Strong Exports Could Drive USD/MYR to June Low

(Bloomberg) -- A stronger-than-expected gain in Malaysia’s exports in May could see USD/MYR re-testing 3.9893 in near term, Bloomberg strategist Andrew Robinson writes.
  • Exports probably rose 2.0% y/y following 1.6% gain in April, median est. in Bloomberg survey shows; ests. range from -2.4% to +6.2%; data due at noon tomorrow
    • Exports data have beaten median est. in 8 of the past 12 months
  • Related data may show imports declined 2.8% y/y and trade surplus narrowed to 8.25b ringgit from 9.06b ringgit in April: other surveys
  • USD/MYR down 0.5% to 4.0223 today; touched 3.9893 on June 24, lowest level since May 4
    • 14-day RSI and Williams %R are both declining
  • Most Asian EM currencies have rallied this week post-Brexit on expectations that the Fed may push back any rate hike
  • NOTE: Andrew Robinson is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: BOJ May Expand QE in July on Brexit, Union Bancaire Privee Says

BOJ May Expand QE in July on Brexit, Union Bancaire Privee Says

(Bloomberg) -- Bank of Japan is likely to loosen monetary policy at its July meeting to slow yen’s gains after Brexit as well as combat falling inflation and slowing economic growth, Mark McFarland, Asia chief economist at Union Bancaire Privee says in interview.
  • Measures may include broadening the range of assets to be purchased and increasing size of QE
  • BOJ and BOK may be first central banks to ease monetary policy in Asia after Brexit, followed by Bank of Indonesia
    • Also sees Taiwan and India cutting interest rates
    • Expects 1-2 more rates cuts in Korea, 2-3 rate cuts in Indonesia
  • Maintains overweight position in EM sovereign dollar bonds because spreads with U.S. treasury yields are attractive
    • “Performance of sovereign dollar market has been quite good with spreads coming down, but we still think there is value in that market,” McFarland says
    • Prefers fixed income positions without currency risks
    • Brexit leads to a lot of difficulty in seeing through how currencies will react
  • “Still hesistant” on China onshore sovereign bonds
    • Yuan developing shallow long-term depreciation trend
    • Not entirely clear on PBOC’s FX policy and central govt’s debt-for-equity swap policy in terms of reducing non-performing loan levels
  • Switzerland’s Union Bancaire Privee manages about CHF110b as at Dec. 31, 2015
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Mark McFarland (Union Bancaire Privee)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: U.S. Banks Beat Fed’s Test as Deutsche Bank, Santander Fail Anew

U.S. Banks Beat Fed’s Test as Deutsche Bank, Santander Fail Anew

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
DBK GR (Deutsche Bank AG)
SAN SM (Banco Santander SA)
MS US (Morgan Stanley)
JPM US (JPMorgan Chase & Co)
BAC US (Bank of America Corp)

People
Bill Woodley (Deutsche Bank Securities Inc)
Brian Moynihan (Bank of America Corp)
Daniel Tarullo (Federal Reserve System)
David Hendler
James Gorman (Morgan Stanley)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: Billionaire’s Dealmaking Legacy Undone by a $33 Billion Bad Deal

Billionaire’s Dealmaking Legacy Undone by a $33 Billion Bad Deal

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
ETE US (Energy Transfer Equity LP)
WMB US (Williams Cos Inc/The)

People
Christopher Sighinolfi (Jefferies LLC)
Keith Bailey (Williams Cos Inc/The)
Kelcy Warren (Energy Transfer Partners LP)
Robert Thummel (Tortoise Capital Advisors LLC)
Skip Aylesworth (Hennessy Funds)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: NY Bank Regulator to Publish Anti Money-Laundering Rules: WSJ

NY Bank Regulator to Publish Anti Money-Laundering Rules: WSJ

(Bloomberg) -- Department of Financial Services to add new requirements for banks to curb illegal transactions by known terror organizations and other criminals, WSJ says, citing regulations it reviewed.
  • New rules also require board officers or senior compliance officers to certify that cos.’ controls are adequate
  • To publish rules on Thursday; rules to go into effect Jan. 1
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: PREVIEW MACAU GAMING: June Revenue May Fall to Lowest Since 2010

PREVIEW MACAU GAMING: June Revenue May Fall to Lowest Since 2010

(Bloomberg) -- Macau’s casino regulator plans to report June gross gaming revenue results between July 1-3, according to Gaming Inspection & Coordination Bureau website.
  • NOTE: July 1 is a public holiday in Hong Kong
ESTIMATES
  • Median rev. est. -9.5% y/y to ~15.71b patacas ($1.97b), according to 7 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News
    • Est. range -4% to -11.8% y/y
  • NOTE: Monthly gross revenue of 15.71b patacas would be the lowest level since Sept. 2010
  • NOTE: Monthly GGR has seen y/y declines for past 24 months
WHAT TO WATCH
  • Bernstein (Vitaly Umansky): June typically experiences some of the weakest average daily rate numbers for gross gaming revenue in 1H
  • Citi (Anil Daswani): June GGR trends remain weak
    • Continuously improving quality of visitors, in terms of playing time, should gradually regenerate mass growth; is a long-term positive for Macau
  • JPMorgan (DS Kim): GGR for first 26 days of June came in at average daily revenue of ~520m-530m patacas/day, “meaningfully below” 580m-590m patacas in April/May and 617m patacas in 1Q
    • “Somewhat expected” given tighter scrutiny on junket, anti-money laundering rules from mid-May
  • Nomura (Harry Curtis): Summer visitation to be hurt by Shanghai Disney, UEFA European Championship
    • Summer crowds will probably be largely gone by the time Wynn Palace opens
BLOOMBERG DATA
  • Galaxy Entertainment is highest-rated among casino operators listed in BI Macau (China) Gaming Market Index, according to Bloomberg consensus analyst ratings
    • SJM Holdings is lowest rated
  • 6-member Index -5.1% YTD
    • Wynn Macau +22%, MGM China +2.6%, Sands China -4.7%, Galaxy Entertainment -8.4%, SJM -19%, Melco Crown -25%
RELATED STORIES
  • June 23: China Anti-Graft Agency to Inspect H.K., Macau Office: SCMP
  • June 17: Macau Plans Punishments on Gaming Violations: Regulator
  • June 8: Decline in Macau Jan.-May Gaming Rev. Within Expectations: Leong
  • June 2: Hidden Earpieces in VIP Rooms Show Macau Money Laundering Risks
  • June 2: Gamblers Leave, Junkets Follow as Slump Persists in Macau: Chart
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
LVS US (Las Vegas Sands Corp)
1928 HK (Sands China Ltd)
WYNN US (Wynn Resorts Ltd)
27 HK (Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd)
2282 HK (MGM China Holdings Ltd)

People
Anil Daswani (Citigroup Inc)
Ds Kim (JPMorgan Chase Bank NA)
Harry Curtis (Nomura Holdings Inc)
Vitaly Umansky (Sanford C Bernstein & Co Inc)

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UUID: 7947283