HALISTER1: CANADA ECO PREVIEW: Retail Sales Due in 5 Minutes

CANADA ECO PREVIEW: Retail Sales Due in 5 Minutes

(Bloomberg) -- Canadian retail sales seen rising 0.8% in April after falling 1% in March (forecast range 0% to +1.3%)
  • Ex-auto sales seen rising 0.7% last month after falling 0.3% prior month
  • In March, receipts at new car dealers fell 3%; sales of furniture, building materials, food and beverages also declined
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: UST MORNING CALL: Uncertainty May Again Be Unkind to Auctions

UST MORNING CALL: Uncertainty May Again Be Unkind to Auctions

(Bloomberg) -- $46b of supply to be taken down today; 2Y FRN, 30Y TIPS, 7Y.
  • Yesterday’s 5Y supply saw soft underlying stats, in sharp contrast to auctions seen in May; broader risk environment, lack of investor conviction before EU referendum may have weighed on sale, RBS writes in a client note
  • Today’s 7Y looks cheap versus wings, roll remains wide to fair value; reduced risk appetite, large amount of duration supply today should lead to some further concession, JPMorgan writes in client note
    • Major risk events ahead, reduced liquidity and elevated implied volatility may dampen investor demand, Nomura writes in note
  • Favor flattening exposure as 5s30s approaches 134bps/135bps area; UST market overall to maintain bid into U.K. vote on EU membership, writes Seaport Global’s Tom Digaloma in a client note
  • Technicals:
    • Resistance: 131-20 (June 20 high); 131-26 (June 17 low); 132-03+ (June 16 low)
    • Support: 131-04+ (pivot s1); 130-30 (50% retreat of May 31-June 16 rally); 130-16+ (61.8% Fibo of May 31-June 16 rally)
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Tom Di Galoma (Seaport Group LLC/The)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Remain Lead Below 5 PPTs Could Spur U.K. EU Vote Rerun: JPMorgan

Remain Lead Below 5 PPTs Could Spur U.K. EU Vote Rerun: JPMorgan

(Bloomberg) -- In the event the remain camp wins with a lead of less than 5 ppts at Friday’s vote on EU membership, JPMorgan’s base case is that there’s a better-than-even chance of another referendum by the end of 2025, analysts Malcolm Barr writes in client note.
  • Expects the Conservative leadership would change by year-end in such a scenario
  • Cites ComRes research on prior referendums that suggests the winning margin for the status quo needs to be 20 ppts or more for the issue to drop from the political agenda; Scottish independence talk persists after the 10 ppt lead for “yes” in 2014
  • A more EU-skeptic PM would likely to take a more assertive stance on a range of issues that could create the pre- conditions for another “unilateral” referendum to be called at some point
    • If there’s another European Treaty between now and 2025, easy to see the U.K.’s ratification of such changes being turned into a referendum on membership
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Malcolm Barr (JPMorgan Chase & Co)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: DBRS to Expand European Corporate Credit-Ratings Coverage

DBRS to Expand European Corporate Credit-Ratings Coverage

(Bloomberg) -- Co. will cover more issuers, particularly in Spain, Italy, France and Portugal, according to statement.
  • DBRS is one of four companies whose ratings are used by the ECB to determine whether bonds are eligible for asset- purchase programs
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
1174Z PL (Portuguese Republic)
7662071Z CN (DBRS Ltd)

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UUID: 7947283