Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- The prospect of a govt shutdown “still poses a potentially serious downside risk for investors,” even as “our firm belief that the debt ceiling will be lifted removes a profound political risk from the landscape,” Compass Point strategists Isaac Boltansky and Lukas Davaz say in note.

• Trump’s commitment to securing funds for a border wall “dramatically raises the spectre of a shutdown in October” and his “injurious relationship” with Congressional Republican leadership “further complicates the underlying calculus” 
• Four factors increase the potential for an equity market sell-off as govt shutdown risks intensify:
  • Further delays confirmations, which would affect Trump’s deregulatory agenda; delivers a “psychological blow” to markets, serving as a “concrete symbol” of Washington’s inability to govern; delays legislative progress on tax reform; and could alters Fed’s policy normalization trajectory
• Compass Point says lawmakers will raise the debt ceiling in mid-September, yet there will likely be a govt shutdown in October
• NOTE: Oct. 5, Oct. 12 Treasury bills currently underperforming, yielding 1.130% and 1.133%, respectively, vs Oct. 19 at 1.107%

To contact the reporter on this story: Alexandra Harris in New York at aharris48@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Boris Korby at bkorby1@bloomberg.net Vivien Lou Chen

(Bloomberg) -- Following are forecasts for today’s economic releases as compiled by Bloomberg News.

• New Home Sales 610k; range 585k to 644k (72 estimates)
• New Homes 0% m/m; range -4.1% to 5.6% (72 estimates)
  • “While the supply side has been the major issue limiting the pace of home sales, the latest Census data indicate that demand could also slow in the next few quarters as household formation slowed to the lowest pace in seven years as of June”: Bloomberg Intelligence
  • In June, new home sales rose 0.8 percent to 610,000 at an annual rate; the median price dropped to $310,800

To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Tanzi in Washington at atanzi@bloomberg.net; Vincent Del Giudice in Denver at vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net Kristy Scheuble

(Bloomberg) -- Inflation scenario is developing better than expected, which may lead to a lower Selic rate at the end of the year, but with probable maintenance of 1ppt cut at Brazil Central Bank next meeting in Sept., says Icatu chief economist Rodrigo Melo in an interview.

• End of cycle likely to be between 7% and 7.5%, depending on reforms
• Approval of the new BNDES long-term rate, known as TLP, would leave CPI scenario even more benign to a 7% Selic rate
  • IPCA-15 below expectations indicates Aug. IPCA between 0.30% and 0.35%
  • IPCA-15 was qualitatively positive
• NOTE: Brazil CPI +0.35% M/m Through Mid-August; Est. +0.40%

Original Story: Icatu: IPCA-15 reforça projeção menor p/ Selic no final do ciclo To contact the translator on this story: Ana Carolina Siedschlag in São Paulo at asiedschlag@bloomberg.net To contact the translation editor responsible for this story: Danielle Chaves at djelmayer@bloomberg.net Reporter on the original story: Ana Carolina Siedschlag in São Paulo at asiedschlag@bloomberg.net Editors responsible for the original story: Daniela Milanese at dmilanese@bloomberg.net Leonardo Lara