Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Treasury futures (TY1) technical levels in focus.

• Daily trend bias: Bullish
• Comment: Overall focus stays higher despite some stall in momentum since Friday; bulls still need to clear the important 126-28/126-29 to re-inject fresh impetus and expose YTD high test at 127-08
  • Resistance: 126-21; 126-25; 126-29; 127-01+/127-02; 127-08
  • Support: 126-13; 126-11; 126-08
• NOTE: Roll-adjusted by difference in GFUT
• NOTE: Sejul Gokal is a FICC technical strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice

To contact the reporter on this story: Sejul Gokal in London at sgokal1@bloomberg.net

(Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley maintains constructive view on EM assets as valuations, fundamentals and technicals support its bullish stance, strategists including Gordian Kemen write in note Wednesday.

• Optimistic despite impending U.S. balance sheet run-off; estimates that an assumed reduction of $180b of UST holdings in first 12 months of run-off will be accompanied by a $15b-20b reduction of EM debt inflows
• Among sovereign credits, suggests buying Argentina and Ukraine and selling South Africa and Colombia
  • Turns bearish on Brazil and offsets it with bullish position in Russia
• For local rates, Morgan Stanley is bullish on most high-yielding countries including Mexico, Peru, Indonesia, India and Turkey
  • Among lower-yielders, it is bullish on Poland but bearish on China
• In currency space, favors countries with healthy external balance sheets, relatively low exposure to risk sentiment, decent carry and light positioning
  • Likes CNY, IDR, INR, MXN, MYR and RUB
  • Doesn’t favor PHP and ZAR

To contact the reporter on this story: Liau Y-Sing in Kuala Lumpur at yliau@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tan Hwee Ann at hatan@bloomberg.net Patricia Lui