Support for U.K. to Exit EU May Be Higher Than Polls Show: Citi
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
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Tina Fordham (Citigroup Inc)
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(Bloomberg) -- The “leave” camp may do significantly better in the June 23 referendum than indicated by most recent polls or betting markets, Citigroup analysts led by Tina M Fordham write in client note.
Alert: HALISTER1- Recent polls showing a possible pro-EU lead in terms of voting intentions may actually signal a small consistent pro-exit lead among people who will actually vote
- Polls which assume all people with a view will vote likely exaggerate support for the remain camp, unless turnout is more than 90%
- Younger voters are more strongly pro-EU and are also much less likely to actually vote on the day
- Turnout is unlikely to be as high as the 84.6% who voted in the Scottish referendum and may be asymmetric with polls suggesting supporters of leaving are more likely to vote
- Complacency and low levels of enthusiasm may also lead to lower turnout among those voters who support staying in the EU
- A significant proportion of women are undecided and could become a key constituency
- Still, Citi puts probability of a vote to leave at 30% to 40%, and an acceleration of the refugee crisis, a relapse of the Greece crisis, fresh political scandal or a terrorist attack could influence the outcome
- NOTE: Analysts say GBP strength reflects greater certainty the electorate will back the “remain” camp, but this may reflect a misreading of recent opinion polls
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
People
Tina Fordham (Citigroup Inc)
To de-activate this alert, click here
UUID: 7947283