HALISTER1: U.K. March Retail Sales Ex-Fuel Due in 5 Mins; Est. M/m -0.3%

U.K. March Retail Sales Ex-Fuel Due in 5 Mins; Est. M/m -0.3%

(Bloomberg) -- U.K. March retail sales ex-auto fuel m/m est. -0.3% vs prev -0.2%.
  • U.K. March retail sales ex-auto fuel y/y est. 3.8% vs prev 4.1%
  • U.K. March retail sales incl-auto fuel m/m est. -0.1% vs prev -0.4%
  • U.K. March retail sales incl-auto fuel y/y est. 4.4% vs prev 3.8%
  • U.K. March public finances (PSNCR) est. n/a vs prev 0.1b
  • U.K. March public sector net borrowing est. 5.4b vs prev 6.5b
Fows and Information: First Word scrolling panel: FIRST First Word newswire: NH BFW To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.net
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Invesco Stays Long European Credit Heading Into ECB Meeting

Invesco Stays Long European Credit Heading Into ECB Meeting

(Bloomberg) -- Invesco remains long European credit ahead of today’s ECB meeting as it expects spreads to compress further, according to portfolio manager Lyndon Man.
  • Company is overweight financial credit, London-based Man says in interview
  • ECB unlikely to give more hints on corporate-sector purchase plan today as program set to start toward end of 2Q; says it will be surprising if central bank announces any details on this
    • Consensus is for ECB to buy from the secondary market; while size of market is big, it could be challenging liquidity-wise
  • If ECB decides to buy also in primary space, that would be positive for markets
  • Doesn’t expect any meaningful market impact from meeting as Draghi is likely to reiterate March message, keeping his dovish stance intact
  • Draghi also expected to stick with March message that lower bound on deposit rates has been reached
  • NOTE: Man manages Invesco Euro Bond Fund, which had about EUR800m in assets under management as of end of March; Invesco Euro Bond Fund is part of Atlanta-based Invesco, which managed $771.5b at the end of March, Lyndon says
  • NOTE: Fidelity says Draghi unlikely to weaken EUR, will keep March message
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
2539Z GR (European Central Bank)

People
Lyndon Man (Invesco Ltd)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Go Long 10Y UST Vs Italy as Pricing of EU Growth Too Low: UBS

Go Long 10Y UST Vs Italy as Pricing of EU Growth Too Low: UBS

(Bloomberg) -- Buy 10Y U.S. Treasuries vs Italy (or Spain) on rising EU event risk and lower terminal U.S. rate in the current cycle, UBS strategist Nishay Patel writes in a client note.
  • Expects U.S. to outperform Italy by 35-40 bps by year-end
  • UBS doesn’t anticipate a meaningful increase in UST yields, expecting 10Y to rise to 2% by end-2016, with overseas demand likely to remain strong
  • Market pricing of EU growth and inflation is far too low, making 10Y Bunds very expensive
    • Expects peripheral spreads to tighten vs Germany in the next 12 months
    • Target 10Y BTP/Bund to 90 bps
  • Entering new spread tightening positions near term is unattractive, given rising event risk
    • Risks, although not UBS’s baseline scenario: U.K. exit from the EU, formation of a leftist government in Spain, an escalation of the Italian banking crisis or another worsening of the situation in Greece
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Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Nishay Patel (UBS Global Asset Management Japan Ltd)

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HALISTER: Billionaire Slim Said to Weigh Stake Sale of Dutch Carrier KPN

Billionaire Slim Said to Weigh Stake Sale of Dutch Carrier KPN

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
KPN NA (Koninklijke KPN NV)
AMXL MM (America Movil SAB de CV)
ORA FP (Orange SA)

People
Carlos Slim Helu (America Movil SAB de CV)
Stephane Richard (Orange SA)

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HALISTER1: Riksbank Rate Decision Due in 5 Mins; Est. Rate Unchanged

Riksbank Rate Decision Due in 5 Mins; Est. Rate Unchanged

(Bloomberg) -- Swedish Riksbank policy rate est. unchanged at -0.5%, according to all 20 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.
  • NOTE: Yday -- RIKSBANK PREVIEW: QE May Be Extended, Krona Seen Undervalued
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
1083Z SS (Sveriges Riksbank)

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UUID: 7947283