HALISTER1: INSIDE G-10: Euro on the Defensive Ahead of ECB; USD Mixed

INSIDE G-10: Euro on the Defensive Ahead of ECB; USD Mixed

(Bloomberg) -- Euro adopts a defensive posture going into ECB meeting today as resistance builds above 1.1400. A dovish message from the European central bank may also trigger USD/JPY to break above 110.00. Kiwi slipping as some analysts call for RBNZ to lower rates below 2.00%.
  • Soros says China’s debt-fueled economy resembles U.S. in 2007-08
  • EUR/USD -0.04% to 1.1292 vs 1.1287/1.1306 range
    • Capped above 1.1300, partly on cross selling versus aussie ahead of ECB, says trader
    • ECB is expected to hold policy today while reinforcing dovish stance; see preview here
  • AUD/USD +0.18% to 0.7808 vs 0.7786/0.7817 range
    • China’s iron-ore futures surging helps to lift AUD/USD
    • AUD/NZD option-related sellers seen near very large 1.1200 strike, says trader
  • NZD/USD -0.14% to 0.6969 vs 0.6956/0.6982 range
    • JPMorgan predicts RBNZ will cut rate to 2% next week; Capital Economics sees 1.75% in 3Q
    • N.Z. permanent immigration fell to nine-month low in March
  • BBDXY steady at 1,174.30
  • USD/JPY -0.04% to 109.80 vs 109.57/109.90 range
    • USD/JPY above 110 layered with buy-stop loss orders: trader
    • EUR/JPY corporate sell orders near 124.30: trader
    • 1-week volatility rises ahead of BOJ meeting
  • GBP/USD +0.03% to 1.4337 vs 1.4321/1.4346 range
    • Obama will urge Britons on Friday to keep their country in the European Union
  • Treasury 10-year yield steady at 1.849%
  • Brent crude futures +0.2%, copper +0.1%, gold +0.3%
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
2539Z GR (European Central Bank)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: Hitachi Follows GE Lead in Increasing Digital Platform Focus

Hitachi Follows GE Lead in Increasing Digital Platform Focus

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
GE US (General Electric Co)
6501 JP (Hitachi Ltd)

People
Toshiaki Higashihara (Hitachi Ltd)
David Rubenstein (Shared Research Inc)
Jeffrey Immelt (General Electric Co)

Topics
CEO Interviews

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: TAIWAN PREVIEW: Factory Output Likely Contracted for 11th Month

TAIWAN PREVIEW: Factory Output Likely Contracted for 11th Month

(Bloomberg) -- Contraction in Taiwan’s March export orders may imply another month of negative growth in industrial production, according to economists’ predictions.
  • Output probably fell 5.50% following a 3.65% decline in Feb., according to median est. of 16 economists in Bloomberg survey
    • Ests. range from -7.00% to -2.20%; data due 4pm on April 22
  • Data released yesterday showed export orders fell 4.7% y/y in March, a smaller decline than the -8.0% expected in Bloomberg survey
  • USD/TWD fell 0.1% yesterday to close at 32.248; now up 0.1% at 32.280
  • Taiwan cut its benchmark rate for a third consecutive quarter to 1.50% on March 24, as an export slump showed no signs of recovering; analysts expect another 12 bps cut in discount rate to 1.38% in 2Q, according to median est. in latest Bloomberg survey
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: INSIDE ASIA: Ringgit, Baht Lead Declines as Dollar Holds Gains

INSIDE ASIA: Ringgit, Baht Lead Declines as Dollar Holds Gains

(Bloomberg) -- Most emerging Asia currencies weaken as a gauge of the dollar held gains from Wednesday on increased bets the Fed will raise interest rates this year.
  • Futures traders are pricing in a 62% chance the Fed will lift rates by year-end; odds were 50% at end of last week
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index steady after rising 0.4% yesterday
  • Scotiabank FX analyst Qi Gao says near-term risk appetite supporting EM Asian currencies could fade from May ahead of FOMC and Brexit referendum
  • Ringgit and baht biggest losers among Asian currencies today, both down 0.6%
  • Ringgit heads for first loss in three days; Scotiabank’s Qi says decline likely due to falling A-share market; also points to ECB meeting this evening; Shanghai Composite down 0.4% after sliding 2.3% yesterday, most in nearly two months
    • Malaysia sells $1.5b of 10-year, 30-year global sukuk; deal was oversubscribed by 4.2 times and drew interest from investor base of over 195 accounts, according to Finance Ministry
  • Baht set to snap four-day rally; Bank of Thailand is ready to stabilize financial markets if baht movements affect real economy, senior director Vachira Arromdee says yesterday; adds currency’s strength in line with peers
  • Both onshore and offshore yuan head for second day of losses; China’s central bank may keep main interest rate on hold until fourth quarter, according to an April 15-20 survey of 56 economists’ by Bloomberg
    • Yuan reference rate lowered for first time this week, down 0.35% to 6.4803
    • Investor George Soros says China’s debt-fueled economy resembles the U.S. in 2007-08 and March credit figures should be seen as a warning sign; capital outflows from the country spurred by anti-corruption campaign making people nervous; also says China and U.S. are cooperating on currency
    • China’s economic recovery masks financial risks: Fitch
  • Japan’s 10-year government bond falls for the first time since April 13 ahead of auction of 20-year notes; Tokyo USD/JPY desk net short of dollars above 110, trader says
    • About 80% of companies oppose Bank of Japan lowering negative rate further: Reuters
    • BOJ says loan demand from households rises, companies’ demand falls
    • LDP’s Yamamoto calls for 20t-yen JGB issue to aid disaster recovery and economy
    • Japanese bought net 844.7b yen overseas debt last week
  • Kiwi declines versus dollar for a second day; JPMorgan predicts Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut benchmark rate to 2% next week; Capital Economics says RBNZ will cut cash rate to 1.75% in third quarter
    • ANZ New Zealand consumer confidence index rose to 120.0 in April from 118.0 in March
  • Aussie steady following decline yesterday; NAB first-quarter business confidence reading declined to 4 from revised 5 in previous quarter; March RBA foreign exchange transactions at A$954m versus A$476m in February
  • U.S. Treasuries advance; yield on 10-year bonds declines 1 bp to 1.836%; data today may show initial jobless claims in U.S. increased to 265,000 in week through April 16 from 253,000 prior week: Bloomberg survey
  • Won advances for third day; unprecedented difficulties facing South Korea include prolonged slowdown in major economies and global divergence in monetary policies, Bank of Korea Governor Lee says at inauguration of new board members
    • BOK’s labor union says nomination process for policy board members isn’t free from government influence and that monetary policy should be performed independently
  • Rupiah weakens for the first time in three days; Bank Indonesia is likely to keep reference rate unchanged at 6.75% today, according to 23 of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, with the rest seeing a cut to 6.50%
    • Central bank will today announce 7-day reverse repo rate, which will become benchmark rate in August; please see “Decision Guide” here
  • Peso declines; analysts regard Senator Grace Poe and former Interior Secretary Mar Roxas as best to run Philippine economy, Bloomberg survey shows
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Grace Poe (Republic of the Philippines)
Qi Gao (Bank of Nova Scotia/The)
Vachira Arromdee (Bank of Thailand)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Stay Long India Bonds for Carry, Outlook Positive: StanChart

Stay Long India Bonds for Carry, Outlook Positive: StanChart

(Bloomberg) -- Key positives for govt bonds are stable economic growth, subdued inflation expectations and improving fiscal & current account deficits, Nagaraj Kulkarni and Arup Ghosh, analysts at Standard Chartered, wrote in note dated yesterday.
  • Estimate RBI OMO purchases at 1.3t-1.5t rupees for FY17; this implies aggregate federal govt bond demand of 100% - 114% of supply
  • Combination of better liquidity conditions, increased RBI demand for govt bonds and more stable overnight rates as positive
  • Flags frequency of OMOs in 1H FY17, monsoon rains and foreign inflows into govt bonds as near-term uncertainties
  • Recommends buying 8.27% 2020 bond with target at 7%, stop- loss at 7.50%; last traded at 7.37%
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Arup Ghosh (Standard Chartered PLC)
Nagaraj Kulkarni (Standard Chartered PLC)

Topics
Weather

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HALISTER1: Singapore 5Y Interest-Rate Swaps Higher for First Time in a Week

Singapore 5Y Interest-Rate Swaps Higher for First Time in a Week

(Bloomberg) -- Singapore 5-year interest-rate swaps rise 8 bps to 1.9800%, headed for first increase since April 14.
  • SGD 2-year swaps rising for second day, up 5 bps to 1.6100%
  • Swap curve steepens, with spread between 2-year and 10-year swaps up 2 bps to 79.5 bps; click here for chart
  • Yield on 10-year govt bond up 3 bps to 1.942%
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283