HALISTER1: INSIDE ASIA: Aussie, Yuan Gain as China Trade Beats Estimates

INSIDE ASIA: Aussie, Yuan Gain as China Trade Beats Estimates

(Bloomberg) -- Aussie and yuan advance as China reported export figures that beat estimates, adding to optimism about a recovery in the Chinese economy.
  • Shipments rose 11.5% in March on year, beating a median estimate for a 10% gain; while imports fell 7.6%
    • AUD/USD rises 0.4% to 0.7714, with strong buying by Asian macro funds through option selling, according an Asia-based FX trader
    • While encouraging, “we need more evidence” to confirm that the manufacturing sector is back on track, according to Iris Pang, a Greater China economist at Natixis SA in Hong Kong
    • Onshore yuan gains 0.05%, with PBOC raising reference rate for third day
  • Ringgit & rupiah among gains in Asian currencies while Singapore’s dollar weakens ahead of MAS decision tomorrow
    • Malaysia’s currency advances for a sixth day, touching 3.8465, the strongest since August, as higher oil price benefited the crude producer
    • Rupiah rises for the fifth day amid dollar weakness; Bank Indonesia’s new policy of adopting reverse repo as benchmark rate will help bring down banks’ lending rates, BNI Director Irawan said late yday
    • Yen weakens against dollar; BOJ should implement more monetary easing if risks materialize which could undermine the mechanism of price rises: Board Member Harada says in speech Wed
    • Japan’s PPI fell 3.8% from year earlier in March, biggest decline in 5 months; median estimate was for 3.5% drop
  • U.S. Treasuries decline, with yield on 10-year bonds up 2bps to 1.795% in Asian trading; data today will probably show U.S. retail sales advance rose 0.1% from previous month in March, first increase in three months, according to Bloomberg survey
  • New Zealand’s food prices rose 0.5% from previous month in March after 0.6% decline in February
  • South Korea, Thailand markets closed
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Iris Pang (Natixis SA)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: MORE: Panama Police Raid Mossack Fonseca Offices: Reuters

MORE: Panama Police Raid Mossack Fonseca Offices: Reuters

(Bloomberg) -- National police says in statement they were searching for documentation that would establish possible use of the law firm for illicit activities, Reuters reports.
  • Police, patrol cars began gathering around co.’s building Tuesday afternoon under command of prosecutor Javier Caravallo, who specializes in organized crime, money laundering: report
  • Mossack Fonseca didn’t respond to requests for comment by Reuters
  • NOTE: ‘Panama Papers:’ Spotlight on Offshore Accounts
  • NOTE: Panama’s Mossack Fonseca Founder Doesn’t Expect Legal Cases: FT
Story Link:NSN O5JVBS6S972B
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
0284798D PP (Mossack Fonseca & Co SA)

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HALISTER: Deutsche Bank Said to Hire Citi’s Boyle to Help Lead Derivatives

Deutsche Bank Said to Hire Citi’s Boyle to Help Lead Derivatives

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
DBK GR (Deutsche Bank AG)
C US (Citigroup Inc)

People
James Boyle (REX Opportunity Corp)
Amanda Williams (Deutsche Bank AG)
Brad Kurtzman (Deutsche Bank AG)
John Cryan (Deutsche Bank AG)
Marcus Schenck (Deutsche Bank AG)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: AUSTRALIA JOBS PREVIEW: RBA Meeting May Go ‘Live’ If Data Misses

AUSTRALIA JOBS PREVIEW: RBA Meeting May Go ‘Live’ If Data Misses

(Bloomberg) -- RBA’s preference for demand-based inflation over imported inflation suggests a weak jobs report tomorrow may nudge the central bank toward an easing at its May 3 meeting, writes Bloomberg strategist Michael G Wilson.
  • In its April monetary policy statement, Governor Stevens singles out labor market strength as one of two components to determine policy, the other being “continued low inflation”
    • RBA Assistant Governor Kent said earlier this week it’s still too early to gauge labor market’s strength
  • Recent USD weakness and commodity strength has helped lift AUD toward year-to-date highs, diluting exporter benefits and adding to RBA’s dilemma
  • Aussie OIS curve shows 1-year at 1.83% vs official cash rate at 2.00%
  • Long Aussie positioning by leveraged funds is largest since Sept. 2014 and a data miss may trigger volatile reaction
  • NOTE: Australia March jobs due data due tomorrow at 11:30am Sydney; est. 17k jobs vs 0.3k in Feb; unemployment rate est. 5.9% vs prev. 5.8%
  • NOTE: April CPI data due on April 27
  • NOTE: Michael G. Wilson is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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HALISTER1: INSIDE INDONESIA: Rupiah Gains: BI Seen on Hold: Goldman Sachs

INSIDE INDONESIA: Rupiah Gains: BI Seen on Hold: Goldman Sachs

(Bloomberg) -- Rupiah rising for fifth day; March car sales increase 6.5% m/m, fall 5.4% y/y, Investor Daily Indonesia reports.
  • Bank Indonesia new rate policy likely effective Aug.: BNI
  • BI seen on hold, remaining “accommodative” at its meeting next week, Goldman Sachs writes in April 12 note
    • Goldman’s probability model points to less than 40% chance of policy rate cut in April
    • In last monetary policy statement, BI said short-term focus would be on improving monetary policy transmission; Governor Martowardojo has also hinted that any changes would be made very cautiously
  • Five-year credit-protection costs for Indonesia dropped for third day yesterday, by 5 bps to 200 bps, according to CMA data
  • USD/IDR down 0.1% at 13,096
    • 1st resistance: 13,237, April 6 high; 2nd resistance: 13,245, March 31 low; 3rd resistance: 13,316, 50-DMA
    • 1st support: 13,033, March 18 low; 2nd support: 13,010, March 14 low; 3rd support: 12,978, March 7 low
  • Global funds were net buyers of 467b rupiah ($36m) in Indonesian bonds on April 8, according to finance ministry data; net buyers of $19m in local equities yesterday: exchange data
  • 10-year govt bond yields steady at 7.493%
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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