Brazil Resuming Anti-Rousseff Trend Positive For Mkt: Analysts
(Bloomberg) -- Developments late this week seen favoring odds of a Rousseff impeachment, and today’s global risk-on move favor BRL and stocks, analysts say.
- “This week started with signals that the government was moving off the ropes, but more recently it suffered some punches”, Vladimir Caramaschi, chief strategist at Credit Agricole Indosuez says in a phone interview
- Andrade Gutierrez plea bargain citing bribes during Rousseff’s previous campaign, top prosecutor recommending blockage of Lula nomination as Rousseff chief of staff among negative developments for govt
- Prosecutor’s decision may hinder Lula’s efforts to help Rousseff battle impeachment, MCM consultancy says in a e-mailed note
- Raphael Figueredo, analyst at Clear Corretora, says that outlook became more favorable for impeachment after Gilmar Mendes, a well-known adversary of govt, took helm of Brazil’s electoral court and as impeachment odds advance in poll conducted by Estado, one of the country’s main newspapers
- NOTE: 277 representatives said they plan to vote for impeachment, Estado poll shows, 43 more than seen on Weds.; 342 is the minimum needed for impeachment to pass; 114 reported in anti-impeachment camp
- “Besides the improvement in commodities and emerging-market currencies, news that the government is losing ground in its impeachment battle are driving the real up,” Leonardo Monoli, partner at Jive Asset Gestao de Recursos says
- “There is also speculation that the prosecutor general may seek permission to investigate Rousseff,” Monoli says
- While there is no consensus impeachment will assure an economic rebound, the market sees VP Temer as having more potential than Rousseff to lead a pro-reforms government, Caramaschi says
- In the event impeachment fails to pass, economy may deteriorate further
Alert:
HALISTER1Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
People Vladimir Caramaschi (Credit Agricole Brasil SA DTVM/Brazil)
Dilma Rousseff (Federative Republic of Brazil)
Gilmar Mendes ((BRA)Federal Supreme Court)
Leonardo Monoli (Jive Asset Gestao de Recursos Ltda)
Luiz Da Silva (Federative Republic of Brazil)
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