Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- USD/IDR could stay in 13,000-13,500 range if CPI is little changed as that may encourage Bank Indonesia to hold rates as it continues to assess impact of recent cuts, Bloomberg strategist David Finnerty writes.

• March CPI likely up 4.50% y/y from 4.42% in Feb., according to median est. of economists in Bloomberg survey
  • Core CPI seen little changed at 3.58% from 3.59% in Feb.
  • Date due tomorrow
• Bank Indonesia’s 2016 inflation target is 3%-5%
• Two weeks ago, central bank lowered benchmark interest rate by 25 bps for third time this year to aid domestic growth
  • Intense inflationary pressure has eased, with CPI falling and stabilizing from above 7% in May-Aug.
• Weaker-than-expected U.S. payrolls and wage data tomorrow may aid rupiah strength short-term and see FX pair test 13,000
• USD/IDR now up 0.1% at 13,280
• NOTE: David Finnerty is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.

(Bloomberg) -- Money-laundering issue started outside and appears to be largely limited to one branch of one bank, former Finance Secretary and Philippine Veterans Bank Chairman Roberto de Ocampo says in e-mailed statement.

• $81m cyber heist involving Rizal Bank branch has become global spectacle; unintended consequences starting to emerge because of Senate probe, which is aired live on TV
• Philippine banks’ remittances operations overseas experience tighter scrutiny from partner foreign banks
• Govt must dig deeper but spare institutions and nation, which has shown tremendous growth potential in past yrs
• De Ocampo says Senate investigation should be held behind closed doors
• NOTE: Philippine Man in $81 Million Heist to Return Portion of Funds Link

(Bloomberg) -- Rizal Commercial Banking closed its remittance operations in Italy because it couldn’t meet on time computer system capability required by Banca D’Italia, Philippine lender says in statement.

• Close not related to issue on money laundering, Rizal Bank says, referring to $81m stolen funds from Bangladesh central bank
• Impact of closure on operations and profitability minimal as it is relatively low-margin business with high operating costs
• NOTE: Rizal Bank Widens Probe on Heist to Include 4 Senior Officials Link

(Bloomberg) -- Further details on the ECB’s corporate bond-buying plans are keenly awaited as analysts weigh how much further spreads can tighten.

• Greece remains in focus as the first bailout review resumes and the IMF said again it will only lend to Greece if there’s some debt forgiveness

• MAIN RISKS:
• ECB plans to buy IG non-financial corporate bonds but hasn’t yet provided many details; further information will help determine the size of the pool of eligible assets, analysts say
• Discussions between Greece and her creditors resume on April 2; conclusion is a pre-condition for debt-relief talks, Citigroup analysts say
• How Europe responds to the attacks in Brussels and the success of the deal between Turkey and Greece to stem the flow of refugees may affect everything from support for Merkel’s coalition govt to the U.K. vote on EU membership
  • Berenberg’s Holger Schmieding says politics is more important than economics in 2016, even more so after the Belgium bombings
• Negotiations to form a govt continue in Ireland and Spain, while DBRS’s decision on Portugal’s rating will determine whether its bonds remain eligible for QE
• This month’s meeting of oil producing nations in Doha also eyed for any signal on oil’s future direction

MARCH

• 31: U.K. Final 4Q GDP reading

APRIL

• On past form, ECB could deliver more details on corporate bond buying program this month, HSBC says
• Novo Banco CDS succession-event vote deadline is this month
• 1: Introduction of the Living Wage in the U.K.; may support wage and price growth, CEBR says
• 1: Fitch may review Germany’s rating; S&P may review Spain
• 2: Mission chiefs due to return to Greece
• 5: U.K. March services, composite PMI
• 6: Earliest Irish parliament can vote on a new prime minister
• 7: ECB accounts
• 12: U.K. March CPI
• 14: BOE rate decision
• 14: Deadline to designate official U.K. “leave” and “remain” campaigns; referendum campaign starts following day
• 17: OPEC meeting with major oil producers
• 20: U.K. March claimant count; Feb average weekly earnings
• 21: ECB rate decision
• 21: Riksbank rate decision
• 22: Eurogroup: Greece first review may be discussed
• 22: Eurozone preliminary April services, composite PMI
• 22: Fitch may review Italy rating, Cyprus; S&P may review France
• 27: Fed rate decision
• 27: U.K. preliminary 1Q GDP
• 28: German April CPI
• 29: S&P may review U.K. rating
  • DBRS is scheduled to report on Portugal’s rating; any downgrade would make PGBs ineligible for ECB QE

• MAY:
• Greece debt relief deal may be agreed in May, Eurasia says
• 3: Spain’s parliament will be dissolved if no govt has been formed
• 5: U.K. April services, composite PMI
• 6: Moody’s may review Portugal rating
• 12: BOE rate decision; quarterly Inflation Report
• 13: S&P may review Italy’s rating, Moody’s may review Ireland
• 18: U.K. April claimant count; March average weekly earnings
• 18: Fed releases minutes of April 26/27 meeting
• 19: ECB accounts
• 20: Moody’s may review France’s rating
• 24: EU May prelim. services, composite PMI
• 30: German May CPI
• 27: Moody’s may review U.K.’s credit rating

• JUNE:
• Spain may hold new elections this month if no coalition formed, Rajoy says
• Dijsselbloem says seeking roadmap on deposit insurance and risk-reduction efforts by this month
• Last month Italy could hold municipal elections
• 2: ECB rate decision
• 3: U.K. May services, composite PMI
• 3: Moody’s may review Finland’s rating; S&P may review Ireland
• 10: Moody’s may review Italy’s rating, Fitch may review U.K., France
• 15: U.K. May claimant count; April average weekly earnings
• Fed rate decision
• 16: BOE rate decision, minutes
• 17: Moody’s may review Spain’s rating
• 23: EC preliminary June services, composite PMI
• 23: U.K. votes on EU membership
• 23: TLTRO 8 allotment
• 23: Brussels summit originally scheduled to start today may be pushed back
• 29: German June CPI
• 30: ECB accounts

(Bloomberg) -- Internal modeling at Citigroup predicts that EUR/USD and GBP/USD are the most likely pairs to be bought among major currencies for month-end hedge rebalancing, according to a note today.

• Quantitative analysts at Citigroup said on Tuesday the dollar’s sell signal for March is the strongest since October; see story here
• EUR/USD -0.18% to 1.1318; still rising 4.1% this month
• GBP/USD -0.27% to 1.4339; gains 3.0% this month

(Bloomberg) -- Here’s a roundup of debt-rating changes of Indian cos. To get this story sent to your inbox in real-time, run NI INRATINGS , click on Display & Edit, then Set Alert Delivery. DOWNGRADES

• Emaar Alloys
  • Long term rating cut to D from B at Crisil
  • Cites the company’s “marginal market share” and vulnerability to “cyclicality” in the steel industry
• Macawber Beekay
  • Long term rating cut to BBB- from BBB+ at Crisil
  • Cites delay in realization of receivables and retention funds, pressuring liquidity, debt protection metrics
• Shree Shubham Logistics
  • Long-term bank facilities cut to BBB+ from A- at Care
  • Cites decline in income from warehousing services amid lower demand following poor weather

UPGRADES

• Adani Welspun Exploration
  • Long-term bank facilities raised to A from A- at Care
  • Cites recent credit enhancement from Adani Enterprises; removes co. from credit watch list after concluding Welspun restructuring won’t be a burden
• Sango Auto Forge
  • Long term rating upgraded to B+ from B at Crisil
  • Cites expectation of credit profile improving over medium-term; operating profit is likely to increase at a steady margin, while equity inflows from backers will boost capital structure
• Tasty Bite Eatables
  • Long-term fund limits raised to A- from BBB+ at ICRA
  • Cites strong growth in domestic revenues and positive demand, margin improvement

(Bloomberg) -- Won rises for fourth day to strongest since Nov. 26 after data showed industrial production increased 2.4% on-year in February; median estimate was for 0.2% decline; manufacturers’ confidence index rose to 70 in April, highest since November; weak global demand and fluctuating markets are canceling out much of the benefit exporters could get from weaker won: President Park.

• Japan’s 10-year government bonds drop; foreign investors sold 4.4t yen ($39b) of Japanese securities in week ended March 25, largest amount on Ministry of Finance records going back to 2005; Japanese bought net 1.2t yen overseas debt last week
  • Daiwa Asset Management will end Daiwa Money Management Fund and two other funds, citing impact of negative rates
• Yuan fixing raised to strongest since Dec. 15; onshore and offshore yuan both heading for first quarterly gain in a year; China may pass U.S. as world’s largest crude importer this year, Unipec’s vice president says
• Aussie declines versus dollar, set to end three-day rally and finish quarter down 4.8%; Australia’s private new home sales decreased 5.3% in February from month earlier, when they rose revised 0.6%; credit to business, consumers rose 0.6% on-month in February according to Reserve Bank of Australia report showing impact of record-low interest rates
• Kiwi heads for first loss this week; New Zealand’s business confidence fell to 3.2 in March, lowest since September, from 7.1 prior month
• U.S. Treasuries advance, with yield on 10-year bonds sliding 1 bp to 1.812%; data today may show Chicago PMI increased to 50.7 in March from 47.6 previous month: Bloomberg survey
• Baht steady against dollar, heading for 2.3% quarterly gain; Bank of Thailand will give revised economic forecasts today; current account surplus probably widened to a record $6.1b in February, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- Anti-Money Laundering Council has sought assistance from Chinese embassy and police, Federal Bureau of Investigation on its probe of $81m stolen funds from Bangladesh, council member Emmanuel Dooc says at briefing in Manila.

• Council to submit draft bill on possible changes to law against dirty money, President Benigno Aquino willing to certify bill as urgent
• Philippines must relax its bank secrecy law since it’s an obstacle to anti-money laundering initiatives, lifting it would be better, says Dooc, who is also Insurance Commissioner
• Council to ask lawmakers to shorten to 5 days from 10 days the deadline for reporting of suspicious transactions
• To seek expansion of covered institutions to include casino, real estate, art and jewelries
• Nation must strengthen council’s authority to freeze bank accounts
• NOTE: Rizal Bank Issues Apology for Staff Involvement in Laundering Link