HALISTER1: Keep Receiving EUR 2Y Swap, Stay Long ERU7 Into March ECB: BNP

Keep Receiving EUR 2Y Swap, Stay Long ERU7 Into March ECB: BNP

(Bloomberg) -- Upcoming euro-area consumer price data will show that inflation is back to negative territory, which could support expectations for ECB rate cut, BNP Paribas strategist Eric Oynoyan writes in client note.
  • Risk of a significant re-steepening correction is very low in the near term, but bull-flattening could lose some momentum in the weeks ahead
  • Peripheral EGB spreads are unlikely to narrow significantly unless bunds sell off
  • Given current bund richness, wouldn’t be aggressively bullish as inflation breakevens may have reached a floor, at least temporarily, which could prevent the rally in nominals from developing much further
  • However, difficult to find a trigger on the agenda that could fuel a significantly bearish bias in the near term
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
2539Z GR (European Central Bank)

People
Eric Oynoyan (BNP Paribas SA)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: Invesco Buys Glencore, BHP Debt as Bondholder-Friendliness Grows

Invesco Buys Glencore, BHP Debt as Bondholder-Friendliness Grows

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
BHP AU (BHP Billiton Ltd)
GLEN LN (Glencore PLC)
IVZ US (Invesco Ltd)
RIO LN (Rio Tinto PLC)

People
Lyndon Man (Invesco Ltd)
Tatjana Greil Castro (Muzinich & Co Inc)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: CREDIT SNAPSHOT: Optimism Buoys Risk Appetite Ahead of Weekend

CREDIT SNAPSHOT: Optimism Buoys Risk Appetite Ahead of Weekend

(Bloomberg) -- European credit mkt looks set to close the week on a positive note, even if investors continue to question the fundamental justification for such improved risk appetite and tighter spreads, Bloomberg strategist Simon Ballard writes.
  • Assumptions of almost open-ended monetary stimulus, with PBOC seen poised to ease further and ECB also widely expected to deliver more next month, may provide a short- term fillip for credit; but many investors maintain an underlying defensive bias with analysis of risk/reward, questioning the longer-term sustainability of generic risk- asset price buoyancy
STATE OF PLAY (Thursday 10.30am GMT)
  • Synthetic indexes sharply tighter as we head toward the weekend; iTraxx Europe 105.77 mid (-3.4bps), iTraxx X-over 425.61 mid (-14.4bps)
    • Financials benefiting from the improved tone to risk appetite; capital structure curve flatter with iTraxx Senior and Sub indexes -4.7bps and -10.9bps respectively
  • Corp cash indexes tighter, but again more modest moves than in synthetics; EUR IG currently 97.38 (-2.0bps), EUR HY cash quoted 567.13bps (-5.6bp)
    • GBP IG credit, now 210.86 (+0.4bps), continues to struggle on implied Brexit risk, although GBP HY paring losses at 590.04 (-2.7bps), according to Bloomberg data
  • Bloomberg Commodity Index trading marginally higher this morning ($76.28, +0.5%) as a reflection of uptick in oil price; WTI current $33.75, (+2.1%); copper March 2016 future (211.95) +2.2%, silver March 2016 future -0.4% and gold -0.3%
  • European equities propelled higher by stimulus assumptions, albeit with FTSE100 (+1.2%) among laggards; major bourses up around 2% on average
    • Similar optimism being baked into U.S. equity futures, which should create a decent base for U.S. corporate credit risk at the open
  • Little change in EUR govt bond yields despite risk on sentiment; long-end slightly steeper
    • 5Y bund -0.36% (unch), 8Y -0.12% (unch), 10Y 0.15% (+1bp), 30Y 0.84% (+2bps)
  • NOTE: Simon Ballard is a credit strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Brazil Police Carry Out 51 Court Orders on Railway-Related Probe

Brazil Police Carry Out 51 Court Orders on Railway-Related Probe

(Bloomberg) -- Police is complying with 44 court orders for searches, 7 for testimonies, according to federal police statement.
  • Orders being carried out in states of Parana, Maranhao, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, Goias and federal district of Brasilia
  • Searches aimed at gathering evidence on bribe payments during construction of Norte-Sul, Integracao Leste-Oeste railways
    • Also targeting cartel, money laundering in govt bidding processes
  • Police found embezzlement of more than 630m reais in Norte- Sul railway construction only in state of Goias
  • Investigation related to Carwash
  • Polce to hold press conf. in Goiania 10am
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: Fortress-Backed New Regency Seeks Oscar Three-Peat in ‘Revenant’

Fortress-Backed New Regency Seeks Oscar Three-Peat in ‘Revenant’

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
FIG US (Fortress Investment Group LLC)
0286742D US (New Regency Productions Inc)
FOXA US (Twenty-First Century Fox Inc)
SCOR US (comScore Inc)

People
Alejandro Inarritu
Arnon Milchan (New Regency Productions Inc)
Hilary Swank
Jeff Bock (Exhibitor Relations Co)
Leonardo Dicaprio

Topics
Key Comm. Real Estate News

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: Buffett’s Empty Calendar Offers Billionaire Path to Bigger Ideas

Buffett’s Empty Calendar Offers Billionaire Path to Bigger Ideas

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
BRK/A US (Berkshire Hathaway Inc)
AXP US (American Express Co)

People
Charles Munger (Berkshire Hathaway Inc)
Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway Inc)
Ajit Jain (Berkshire Hathaway Inc)
Gregory Abel (Berkshire Hathaway Energy Co)
Howard Buffett (Howard G Buffett Foundation)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: UBS Charged With Money Laundering, Fiscal Fraud in Belgium

UBS Charged With Money Laundering, Fiscal Fraud in Belgium

(Bloomberg) -- Investigating judge Michel Claise charges Swiss bank UBS with money laundering and organized fiscal fraud, according to e-mailed statement from Brussels prosecutor’s office.
  • UBS also accused of illegally exercising profession of financial intermediary as it approached Belgian clients directly rather than through Belgian unit
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
UBSG VX (UBS Group AG)

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UUID: 7947283