Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Chinese economy remains strong and its structure is improving, central bank governor Zhou says; adds currency basket is becoming more important; warns debt-to-GDP ratio is rising; G-20 meeting begins in Shanghai; yuan reference rate lowered for fourth day; no basis for continued yuan depreciation: PBOC; says policy is prudent with slight easing bias; Fed should consider broader implications of its monetary policy: Xinhua commentary.

• Yen snaps two-day decline against dollar; Japan CPI excluding fresh food was unchanged in January from year earlier, matching median estimate and after 0.1% increase in December; policy makers need to cooperate to avoid currency wars: Finance Minister Aso; chance of hard landing for China is low: BOJ’s Kuroda
• U.S. Treasuries little changed, with yield on 10-year bonds at 1.726% in Asian trading; data today should show U.S. fourth-quarter annualized GDP rose 0.4% from previous quarter, least since early 2014, according to median estimate in Bloomberg survey
• Singapore’s dollar rises; data today should show island’s industrial production fell 5.1% from year earlier in January, according to Bloomberg survey; see preview here
• Kiwi advances for third day against dollar; New Zealand’s trade balance swung to NZ$8m surplus in January from revised NZ$38m deficit in December, first surplus in eight months
• Taiwan’s dollar rises; data today expected to show island’s industrial production dropped 6.05% from year earlier in January after 6.17% decline in December: Bloomberg survey; see preview here

(Bloomberg) -- Industrial output likely shrank for a ninth consecutive month in January, which may encourage central bank to lower interest rates when it meets in March, Bloomberg strategist David Finnerty writes.

• Output likely fell -6.05% from year earlier after declining -6.17% in Dec., according to median est. in Bloomberg survey; data due at 4:00pm local time today
• Central bank cut benchmark interest rate by 12.5 bps to 1.625% in Dec.; data released since then showed economy shrank in the last quarter and export orders continued to tumble
• Policy makers will cut benchmark rate, now at 1.625%, to 1.45% this year, according to Bloomberg survey of economists
• NOTE: David Finnerty is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.

(Bloomberg) -- Factory output probably fell 5.1% y/y in Jan. following 7.9% decline in Dec., according to median est. in Bloomberg survey; range of ests. from -9.0% to -1.1%; data due 1pm local time.

• Would be 12th month of negative output; see table here
• Since release of Dec. IP data on Jan. 26, Singapore PMI fell to 49.0 from 49.5, retail sales dropped to 2.9% from 4.7%, non-oil domestic exports contracted 9.9% from -7.2% and CPI held steady at -0.6%
• Over same period USD/SGD has declined 1.8% to 1.4016; 10- year bond yields down 8 bps to 2.270%
• NOTE: GDP grew 6.2% q/q in 4Q, more than initially estimated