Halister News

--ALEXEI ANISHCHUK

(Bloomberg) -- Net change in employment seen at +12.5k in July vs +45.3k in June (forecast range -10k to +33.6k)

• Canada’s unemployment rate seen at 6.5%, same as prior month * “Small business sentiment and hiring intentions have cooled since peaking in May and survey data has pointed towards more subdued hiring conditions in manufacturing”: TD Securities

(Bloomberg) -- Following are forecasts for today’s economic releases as compiled by Bloomberg News.

• Nonfarm Payrolls 180k; range 125k to 220k (84 estimates)
• Private Payrolls 180k; range 100k to 210k (38 estimates)
• Manu Payrolls 5k; range -3k to 12k (18 estimates)
• Unemploy Rate 4.3%; range 4.2% to 4.4% (78 estimates)
• Hourly Earn 0.3% m/m; range 0.1% to 0.4% (58 estimates)
• Hourly Earn 2.4% y/y; range 2.3% to 2.6% (28 estimates)
• Avg. Weekly Hours 34.5; range 34.4 to 34.5 (30 estimates)
• The labor market “remains a particularly bright spot of the economy”: Natwest Markets
• GDP data “signal that the economy is on a steady trajectory at midyear, and this is likely to be reflected in the July jobs report, as well”: Bloomberg Intelligence
• In June, the economy added 222,000 non-farm jobs, the most since February
• Trade Balance -44.5b; range -48b to -43.5b (54 estimates)
• Preliminary data on June merchandise trade showed a deficit of $63.9 billion, the smallest so far this year

To contact the reporters on this story: Jordan Yadoo in Washington at jyadoo@bloomberg.net; Vincent Del Giudice in Denver at vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net Kristy Scheuble

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. rates options market is pricing a 1-day straddle on 10-year yields with a breakeven of about 4bps, one of the lowest payroll expectations this year, given the limited outcomes which would impact near term Fed pricing.

• Beyond a much sharper-than-expected rise in hourly earnings, stakes will be higher at Aug. 24-26 Jackson Hole summit for signals on policy shifts which may see systematic vol sellers scale back this month, with seasonality seeing upside risk to vol
• Short-dated implied vols typically rise in August with USD 1m10y seen increasing 0.38bp/day on average over the last five years; see seasonality here
  • This seasonality dynamic is likely due to low summer liquidity coupled with annual August Jackson Hole summit
• NOTE: Tanvir Sandhu is an interest-rate and derivatives strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice

To contact the reporter on this story: Tanvir Sandhu in London at tsandhu17@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Ven Ram at vram1@bloomberg.net Anil Varma

(Bloomberg) -- Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria, Economic and Financial Crimes Commission to reopen investigations of lenders and their officials, whose actions increased amounts of non-performing loans, and possibly prosecuting them, Lagos-based newspaper reports, citing statement by the organisations.

• NOTE: May 25, Nigeria’s Amcon 2016 Loss Widens to 351b Naira vs 304b Naira

To contact the reporter on this story: David Malingha Doya in Abuja at dmalingha@bloomberg.net