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(Bloomberg) -- The Treasury should increase the supply of sub-5Y USTs to minimize funding costs of the Fed’s portfolio run-off, flattening the 5s30s curve, as yields in the sector rise, TD strategists led by Priya Misra write in note.

• Supply pressure could “steepen the 2s5s curve but flatten the 5s30s curve” as Treasury finances $175b of Fed’s portfolio run- off
  • “We continue to hold on to our 5s30s flatteners”
• Additional Treasury supply to “cheapen” USTs vs OIS and “put tightening pressure on swap spreads”; front-end supply would lead GC and front-end USTs to “underperform” vs OIS and Libor
• TD doesn’t see any change in issuance sizes this quarter 
  • August quarterly refunding announcement could include $24b in 3s, $23b in 10s, $15b in 30s; discussion “will effectively set the stage for supply increases starting at the November refunding”

To contact the reporter on this story: Anna Windemuth in New York at awindemuth1@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Boris Korby at bkorby1@bloomberg.net Vivien Lou Chen

--Washington Newsroom (202) 624-1820

(Bloomberg) -- Citi recommends buying Venezuela bonds with CDS as it does not expect U.S. sanctions to be “punitive,” Donato Guarino, Munir Jalil, and Esteban Tamayo write in report.

• “This negative price action has been driven by fear of further U.S. sanctions - possibility limiting the Venezuela oil imports - if Maduro will go ahead with the July 30 constituent assembly vote to re-write the constitution. We do not think U.S. sanctions will be punitive.”
• Recommends investors enter a “notional neutral basis trade”: Long Venezuela 2023 bonds and buying protection with 5yr CDS contract
• NOTE: Venezuelan Soldiers in Streets as Maduro Plans Power Grab

To contact the reporter on this story: Christine Jenkins in Bogota at cjenkins28@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Arie Shapira at ashapira3@bloomberg.net Nathan Crooks

(Bloomberg) -- Following are forecasts for today’s economic releases as compiled by Bloomberg News.

• New Home Sales 615k; range 575k to 646k (68 estimates)
• New Homes 0.8% m/m; range -5.7% to 5.9% (68 estimates)
• "While demand has remained solid, limited housing supply has been holding back a more robust jump in sales as of late. However, inventory became less scarce in the last two months as new home completions increased in May and June": Bloomberg Intelligence
• In May, new home sales rose for the fourth time in five months; the median sales price increased to a record $345,800

To contact the reporters on this story: Chris Middleton in Washington at cmiddleton2@bloomberg.net; Vincent Del Giudice in Denver at vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net Kristy Scheuble