Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- America Movil says it is auditing payments that its Guatemala subsidiary Telgua made to a political party, company executive told Bloomberg.

• Contributions of the kind are allowed by law but might have not followed certain rules and regulations as well as the company’s internal controls
• Telgua executive assumed responsibility for way payments were made and is willing to cooperate with investigators
• Guatemalan police arrested 17 people on suspicion of involvement in a web of money laundering and illegal election financing, Reuters reported Friday
• Former communications minister Alejandro Sinibaldi allegedly ran scheme when serving under former president Otto Perez Molina, creating a series of shell companies to launder money he collected in bribes, Reuters reported
• Investigators found evidence of payments from Telgua in Sinibaldi’s account, Reuters reported; payments were intended to secure the company favorable treatment in dispute with rival, an investigator told Reuters
• America Movil did not receive any benefits from said payments as matter was resolved privately and without any involvement from authorities, company told Bloomberg

To contact the reporter on this story: Andrea Navarro in Mexico City at anavarro30@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Crayton Harrison at tharrison5@bloomberg.net Cyntia Barrera Diaz

(Bloomberg) -- Bund straddles show expectations of a relatively quiet ECB meeting this week, while the skew remains biased to the downside, where Draghi may reiterate his message from the Sintra speech and insist on the need for prudence and persistent monetary stimulus, Bloomberg strategist Tanvir Sandhu writes.

• August 2017 bund straddle, which expires Friday, has breakeven of about 5-6bps (equivalent to strike levels at about 160.70 and 162.30, spot ref. 161.40)
• Bund put skew has richened as the ECB’s concessions on wording has evolved, as indicated here; see chart here of September skew
• Near four-sigma move in bunds following Draghi’s Sintra speech was warranted given the limited risk premium that was seen in the front end; see more here
• While the fair value for bunds was only modestly rich prior to Sintra (vs extreme valuations prior to 2015 bund VaR shock), a further selloff toward 70bps area may see bunds cheapness stretched
• NOTE: Tanvir Sandhu is an interest-rate and derivatives strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice

To contact the reporter on this story: Tanvir Sandhu in London at tsandhu17@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Ven Ram at vram1@bloomberg.net Anil Varma

(Bloomberg) -- Macau casinos may see players gambling less, impacting near-term gross gaming rev. (GGR) momentum, as visitors seek to avoid scrutiny, Goldman Sachs’s Simon Cheung writes in note following Daiwa report last week that one of Macau’s largest junket operators issued memo warning customers, key staff of "liquidity channel impairment" amid increased enforcement of anti-money laundering initiatives.

• The junket operator has since been reported by analysts to be Suncity
• Cheung questions whether this will "structurally impair the money transfer mechanism deployed by agents or players"; for now still sees this as part of government’s initiatives to better monitor capital flow, and not as targeted crackdown of junket system in Macau
  • Capital outflow via junket VIP "is not that significant," Cheung says; although expects share prices to remain volatile until actual impact of investigation becomes clear, as past incidents suggest lackluster performance 1-2 months after tightened measures
• Goldman rates SJM, Wynn Macau, MGM China buy, Galaxy, Melco Resorts, Sands China neutral
• Meanwhile, Nomura Instinet analyst Harry Curtis warns clients in note that investors "should be prepared for slower VIP growth, whether it’s from tighter liquidity or simply more difficult comps."
  • Incident last week increases perceived risk that Macau growth will slow, due to either greater government intervention in banking system (that influences liquidity that feeds junket system) or more difficult comparisons Macau’s growth rate faces beginning in 4Q
  • Nomura rates MGM buy, LVS, MLCO, WYNN neutral

To contact the reporter on this story: Janet Freund in New York at jfreund11@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Arie Shapira at ashapira3@bloomberg.net Courtney Dentch

(Bloomberg) -- Following are forecasts for today’s economic releases as compiled by Bloomberg News.

• Empire 15; range 10 to 20.8 (38 estimates)
• In June, the index rose to 19.8, the highest since September 2014, led by shipments and new orders
• Factory data from the New York Fed, as well as the Philadelphia Fed, have exhibited "a very healthy pipeline of activity": RBC Capital Markets

To contact the reporters on this story: Chris Middleton in Washington at cmiddleton2@bloomberg.net; Vincent Del Giudice in Denver at vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net Kristy Scheuble