Barron’s Roundup: Bristol-Myers’ Profit Pipeline; Kraft Cooked
(Bloomberg) -- Bristol-Myers Squibb shares could return 25% to 40% in the next two to three years as use of its cancer drug grows and its pipeline yields marketable products, according to Barron’s in its July 3 issue. Key takeaways include:
- Bristol-Myers (BMY) stock has dropped 27% from a 52-week high, to $55.72, because of a disappointing trial and setback involving the company’s key product, Opdivo, a drug used to treat advanced-stage lung cancer.
- Investors are ignoring the lucrative markets where Opdivo has been approved, and a promising pipeline that includes treatments for cancer and other diseases.
- Bristol-Myers has more than two-dozen Phase 3 oncology trials under way, and nearly twice as many Phase 1 and Phase 2 studies.
- Opdivo uses the body’s own T cells to help recognize and kill cancer cells. Immuno-oncology therapy is more expensive than chemotherapy, but less toxic. Analysts see revenue potential of $20b-$25b for IO treatments by 2020, roughly half from lung-cancer treatments.
- Sales of Opdivo, also approved for treatment of melanoma and some other cancers, soared 60% in the 1st quarter and account for nearly 20% of Bristol’s total sales, which are expected to reach $20.2 billion this year.
Other highlights from this week’s magazine (subscription required):
- Texas Instruments (TXN) shareholders could see 10% annual returns as the Dallas-based company’s share of the analog-chip market continues to grow, Barron’s says. TI has an 18% market share, and two-thirds, or $8.54b, of its 2016 revenue comes from chips. The company is poised to increase revenue by mid-single digits, and profit by high-single digits.
- Look for a deal-making surge as “sub scale” cable and wireless operators such as Sprint (S), T-Mobile (TMUS), Cox (COX) and Frontier (FTR) tie up, Barron’s reports. Cross-industry combinations look likely as cable companies are keen to roll out bundled wireless service to U.S. customers. Regulatory climate has improved under Trump and a price war among wireless carriers pushed down average revenue per user. Comcast (CMCSA) and Deutsche Telekom (DTE GY), which controls T-Mobile, look like winners.
- Kraft Heinz (KHC) faces secular problems as its packaged foods lose share to fresher, organic foods, according to Evan Lorenz, a deputy editor with Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. The food giant also faces a growing price war with Amazon.com (AMZN), while Aldi and Lidl -- German discounters that primarily sell their own brands -- expand in the U.S. Kraft Heinz shares trade at 25 times earnings on adjusted basis, “awfully rich” for a business that’s declining, according to Lorenz.
- Gold (XAU) could get a boost from a falling dollar and political worries, Barron’s says. The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index has fallen more than 3% from its May high as the economy produces weaker-than-expected results, making gold -- priced in dollars -- that much cheaper. The greenback is also pressured by signs that several major central banks are on the verge of rolling back stimulus or raising rates.
- Emerging-market government-bond yields denominated in local currencies remain attractive with an average yield around 6.2%, roughly four percentage points higher than 10-year U.S. Treasuries, Barron’s says. Amar Reganti, fixed-income strategist at Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo in Boston, sees value in local currency bonds, given the yield spread against developed-market debt, and room for currencies to appreciate.
To contact the reporter on this story: Martin Z. Braun in New York at mbraun6@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Bernard Kohn at bkohn2@bloomberg.net Kenneth Pringle, Ros Krasny
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Tickers BMY US (Bristol-Myers Squibb Co)
4528 JP (Ono Pharmaceutical Co Ltd)
AMZN US (Amazon.com Inc)
CMCSA US (Comcast Corp)
1026Z US (Cox Enterprises Inc)
People Amar Reganti (Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co LLC)
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