Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Canadian GDP seen rising 3.4% y/y in April after increasing 3.2% in March (forecast range +3.1% to +3.4%)

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. June light vehicle sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) are estimated at 16.6m vs 16.8m y/y. Sales are expected to be pulled down by weakness in fleet sales, amid a "soft selling environment." U.S. sales starting to feel more like an "eroding plateau," Barclays says, adding that June is poised to become the fourth straight month with SAAR below 17m.

• Most automakers report monthly sales Monday pre-market
• See Bloomberg estimate chart
• GM supply chain; Ford supply chain; FCAU supply chain
  • Bloomberg Intelligence primers for GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler
  • BI credit primers for GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler
• 1Q results GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler

ANALYST COMMENTARY

• Goldman Sachs (David Tamberrino): Sees a continued softer selling environment in U.S., driven by fleet pull-back and softness in retail SAAR; channel checks suggest pace of sales weakened throughout the month and promotional environment ahead of July 4th holiday not expected to start until after June 30, thus not affecting June sales
  • Weaker retail environment also due to more subdued growth in incentives, which are tracking up ~$240/vehicle y/y through mid-month, but down $110/vehicle sequentially
• JPMorgan (Ryan Brinkman): Says y/y decline will be driven entirely by lower fleet sales, with retail sales likely in line with or slightly higher y/y, citing channel checks
• Barclays (Brian Johnson): A 16.5m SAAR would be the lowest monthly SAAR since early 2015 and would mark the fourth straight monthly SAAR below 17m; U.S. sales feeling more like an "eroding plateau," in which SAAR would remain at healthy levels, albeit with continued headline declines
• JD Power/LMC Automotive (Deirdre Borrego): June new vehicle retail sales pace expected to be lowest for the month since 2012; broader concern remains negative health indicators behind sales results; notes total incentive spending in market has risen to a record $25.2b through June, up 11.7% from last year
• Edmunds: Inventory reaching all-time highs; incentives up 23% from 2016; expects incentive spending to continue to grow beyond last year’s record of $2,869

ESTIMATES

• Big 3 ests.:
  • GM: -3.4%
  • Ford: -6.0%
  • Fiat Chrysler: -7.9%
• Other ests.:
  • Toyota: +1.2%
  • Honda: +0.5%
  • Nissan: -2.0%
  • Hyundai/Kia: -2.5%
  • Volkswagen/Audi: +13%

RELATED:

• Earlier, SUVs Enjoy Summer Surge as Car Workers Take Unwanted Vacation
• June 27, Autos Weak as Schaeffler Trims Profit View, GM Cuts U.S. Outlook
• June 26, June Auto Sales SAAR Estimated to be 16.5m, Barclays Says

--With assistance from Jamie Butters. To contact the reporter on this story: Esha Dey in New York at edey@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Arie Shapira at ashapira3@bloomberg.net Scott Schnipper

(Bloomberg) -- Bayer sees one-time negative impact of EU300m to EU400m on Ebitda before special items for 2017.

• “At the end of the harvest season in Brazil, regular stocktaking revealed an unexpectedly high channel inventory level of crop protection products”
• Co. taking “appropriate accounting measure” in 2Q
• Bayer also expects earnings to be impacted by unfavorable currency developments
• Business performance by Consumer Health Division is weaker than previously expected
• Bayer will be adjusting full-year forecasts for sales and earnings in Crop Science and Consumer Health divisions.
• “This will also result in adjustments to the forecasts for group sales and earnings indicators”

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