Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Following are forecasts for today’s U.S. economic releases as compiled by Bloomberg News.

• Housing Starts 1220k; range 1142k to 1270k (73 estimates)
• Starts 4.1% m/m; range -2.6% to 8.4% (73 estimates)
• Build Permits 1249k; range 1196k to 1300k (47 estimates)
• Permits 1.7% m/m; range -2.6% to 5.9% (47 estimates)

(Bloomberg) -- If price reductions announced by Petrobras are fully passed through and there are no changes in other portions that make up the final consumer price, diesel may fall 3.5%, or about 0.11 real per liter, on average, and gasoline may fall 0.9%, or 0.03 real per liter, on average, analysts at MCM say in report.

• Total impact with gasoline and ethanol in the IPCA inflation index will be of around 4bps
• Decision reflects the fall in international oil prices from $50/barrel to something below $46/barrel and the relative stabilization of the USD at around 3.30 reais
• NOTE from June 14: Petrobras Cutting Gasoline Prices by Avg 2.3%, Diesel 5.8%

Original Story: MCM: Queda de combustíveis pode ter impacto de 4 pb no IPCA To contact the translator on this story: Danielle Chaves in Sao Paulo at djelmayer@bloomberg.net Reporter on the original story: Ana Carolina Siedschlag in São Paulo at asiedschlag@bloomberg.net Editor responsible for the original story: Daniela Milanese at dmilanese@bloomberg.net

Economic Release Details: {RREFKANN Index ECOD} --SCOTT ROSE

(Bloomberg) -- Reduction of the inflation target in an environment of low inflation and anchored inflation expectations is compatible with monetary policy management similar to that of the most successful international experiences, according to Credit Suisse’s report signed by analysts led by Nilson Teixeira.

• A reduction of 50bps in the target would result in a rise in nominal interest of approximately 13bps after four quarters, a drop in IPCA inflation of 0.16pp in the same period, and a reduction of 0.1pp in GDP growth after seven quarters, says analysts citing internal estimates
• Brazil’s inflation target is high compared with the other 47 countries that use inflation targeting, according to the report
  • The average inflation target in developed countries is 2.2%, while that in emerging countries is 4.0% and in Latin American countries, 3.0%
• Credible reduction in target leads to lower inflation in medium term
  • “The cost of monetary policy in terms of GDP growth is minimized in a scenario of perfect credibility of the central bank”
• The success of the central bank’s monetary policy strategy in the coming years will depend on the implementation of a continual and comprehensive agenda of reforms, according to the report
  • “Failure to implement the fiscal consolidation would lead Brazil’s economy to an environment of high inflation and recession, whatever the established center of the target range”
  • “Brazil needs to advance on various fronts, and striving for low and stable inflation is just one of them”
• NOTE: Brazil said to reduce 2019 inflation target to 4.25%, according to Valor Economico

To contact the reporter on this story: Leonardo Lara in Sao Paulo at llara1@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Daniela Milanese at dmilanese@bloomberg.net Danielle Chaves