EGB Index Extension Supportive for Long-End Italy, Belgium: Citi
(Bloomberg) -- Expect the EGB index duration to extend by 0.08 yrs at the end of June, in-line with the five-year median June change, which should be most supportive for Italy, write Citigroup strategists including Saumesh Dutta in a note.
- For EGB portfolios, the weighted duration change is most relevant, this should be most supportive for Italy and will be the largest extension of the Italian index since end-April 2016, driven primarily by long-end issuance over the month
- Among the individual country indices that make up the EGB index, Belgium should extend the most, driven by OLO 06/2018s dropping out of the index
- Project strong support for 10y, 30y Belgium, and support for 30y Italy
- Projected duration changes (years)
- Germany 0.10
- Italy 0.14
- France 0.00
- Spain 0.04
- Belgium 0.31
- Netherlands 0.01
- Ireland 0.05
- Austria 0.00
- Finland 0.00
- Total 0.08
- NOTE: Weighted duration of a country is calculated as (market value of country) x (effective duration) / (market value of EGBI)
- Very significant for EGBI portfolio managers as they attempt to keep it unchanged through month-end re-balancing: Citi
To contact the reporter on this story: Stephen Spratt in London at sspratt3@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Ven Ram at vram1@bloomberg.net David Goodman
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