HALISTER1: PREVIEW ACTELION FY: J&J Takeover to Eclipse Annual Results

PREVIEW ACTELION FY: J&J Takeover to Eclipse Annual Results

(Bloomberg) -- Actelion to report earnings on Feb. 14 at 7am CET. FY ESTIMATES
  • Total net revenue: CHF2.40b (15 ests., range CHF2.38b - CHF2.43b)
  • Core earnings: CHF991m (9 ests., range CHF943m - CHF1.02b)
  • Core net income: CHF863m (10 ests., range CHF825m - CHF889m)
  • Diluted core EPS: CHF8.07 (10 ests., range 7.88 - 8.24)
  • Drug ests.:
    • Tracleer: CHF1.02b
    • Opsumit: CHF829m
    • Uptravi: CHF244m
    • Zavesca: CHF103m
    • Veletri: CHF95m
ANALYST COMMENTARY:
  • Oddo & Cie: FY results may be masked by J&J acquisition
  • Bloomberg Intelligence: takeover may eclipse core drug performance; 2016 performance is underpinned by Opsumit and Uptravi; co. faces a challenging 2017, with expected U.S. launch of Tracleer generics in 1Q
  • Bank am Bellevue (Buy, PT CHF288): Estimates new R&D company NPV at CHF10.5/shr for a market cap of CHF1.66b; sees “significant” upside given early-mid stage development of most assets
    • Should all current Phase II assets and the partnered assets to J&J be commercialized, the fair value of the new R&D company would be roughly CHF4.65b
DATA:
  • Stock is up 22% YTD vs a 3.2% rise in the SXDP
    • Is trading 34.7x next year’s earnings vs 15x for SXDP
  • Of 19 analyst ratings, 3 are buy, 13 hold, 3 sell; avg PT of CHF238.8 implying ~11% downside
  • Stock fell on last 2 earnings days
RELATED:
  • Actelion Rises as Uptravi Review Proves Less Risky for J&J Deal
  • Actelion Drug Scare Pushes J&J Takeover Premium Up to 19%: Chart
  • Actelion Founder’s $1.5 Billion Payday Gives Him Shot at More
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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JNJ US (Johnson & Johnson)
ATLN VX (Actelion Ltd)

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