HALISTER1: U.S. ECO PREVIEW: Income and Spending, LEI Due in 5 Minutes

U.S. ECO PREVIEW: Income and Spending, LEI Due in 5 Minutes

(Bloomberg) -- Personal income seen rising 0.3% in Nov. after increasing 0.6% in Oct. (forecast range 0% to +0.5%); tracks wages and salaries, investment and rental income, transfer payments.
  • “Flat aggregate income in the payrolls report points to weakness in personal income"; risk to downside: Bloomberg Intelligence
  • Personal spending seen rising 0.3% in Nov., same as Oct. (forecast range +0.1% to +0.5%); tracks spending on goods and services, is used to calculate GDP
  • Index of leading economic indicators seen rising 0.1% in Nov., same as Oct. (forecast range -0.1% to 0.5%); LEI measures economic outlook for next 3 to 6 mos.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Brazil President’s Measure Unlikely to Affect BCB Policy: Opus

Brazil President’s Measure Unlikely to Affect BCB Policy: Opus

(Bloomberg) -- Govt decision to allow workers to withdraw inactive accounts from savings fund known as FGTS may fail to change pace of BCB rate cuts, Jose Marcio Camargo, chief-economist at Opus Gestão de Recursos, says in a phone interview.
  • BCB’s more likely decision continues to be a 50bps cut in January; a 75bps decrease is possible if inflation and activity drop further, but it would be “very difficult”
  • The estimated volume of BRL30b released with the measure may be significant for people to curb their debts, but it is not big compared to the total estimated BRL6t of the GDP, Camargo says
  • “Brazil at this moment is not suffering from an excess of demand, yet is facing high production gap and unemployment”
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Jose Camargo (Opus Gestao de Recursos Ltda)

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UUID: 7947283