HALISTER1: EU CREDIT OPEN: Risk On But ECB May Hold Key For Year-End Tone

EU CREDIT OPEN: Risk On But ECB May Hold Key For Year-End Tone

(Bloomberg) -- Risk on tone set to continue Wednesday in Europe as Asian credit markets sustained bullish momentum overnight, but activity may be hindered by the approaching ECB meeting, Bloomberg strategist Simon Ballard writes.
  • Banks remain a key pressure point amid persistent uncertainty over Italian bank recapitalizations, EU Euribor rigging fines, Credit Suisse cost cutting
  • Credit market activity may be restrained before ECB meeting Thursday as market awaits QE update
    • An extension beyond March 2017 could provide near-term fillip for risk appetite; failure to extend would disappoint, may extinguish spread tightening potential into year-end
  • In primary, World Bank’s GBP tap is the only deal expected to price so far today
  • European IG credit pipeline here, leveraged finance pipeline here
  • Bloomberg Barclays Eur-Agg Corporate index closed Tuesday unchanged at 126bps; Bloomberg Barclays Eur HY index closed at 404bps (-10bps)
  • CDX IG closed Tuesday at 70.18 (-2.0bps); iTraxx Asia Ex Japan IG is currently -3.5bps at 120.85 and iTraxx Australia quoted -3.7bps at 104.50
NEWS
  • Corporate News
  • Ahold to Start EU1b Share Buyback Program in 2017
  • VW’s Korea Unit Slapped With Record Fine for False Emission Ads
  • Ikea Full-Year Profit Rises 20% as Retailer Expands in China
  • Stagecoach 1H Rev. Rises, FY View Broadly Unchanged
  • Trafigura FY Profit Falls 12% Despite Record Oil Volumes
  • Steinhoff Sees Sales Momentum Continuing, Confident in Margins
  • Clas Ohlson 2Q Profit Slightly Below Ests.; Sales Match
  • Shell and Total Said to Sign Initial Oil Deals With Iran
  • Financial News
  • Credit Suisse Steps Up Cost Cuts as Revenue Eludes CEO Thiam; Targets 2018 Operating Cost Base Below CHF17b
  • Sberbank Nov. Profit 53.4b Rubles Under Russian Standards
  • Monte Paschi Retail Junior Debt Treatment Is Key, Goldman Says
  • UniCredit May Keep 10% in Pioneer If Amundi Offer Succeeds: Mf
  • Rating News
  • S&PGR Revises Incitec Pivot Otlk To Stable; ‘BBB’ Rtg Affrmd
  • Chesapeake Corp Family Rating Upgraded to Caa1 by Moody’s
  • China’s Corp Deleveraging Mixed Credit Implications: Moody’s
  • S&P Says Politics May Weigh on Poland’s Financial Stability: PAP
  • Other News
  • Green Delays Arcadia Results as Pressure Builds on Billionaire
  • Italy to Ask for EU15b ESM Loan for Paschi, Other Banks: Stampa
ANALYST VIEWS
  • We would look to buy cheap protection should Main and X-Over grind tighter in coming sessions and advance to levels in mid-to-high 60bps area for Main and close to 300bps for X- Over while we also keep our defensive stance centred on core CSPP names in cash: Commerzbank
  • “The corporate bond market is winding down; primary failing to proffer much by way of activity, secondary in the doldrums as turnover and liquidity drop precipitously. Protecting performance means ‘do nothing’ - or take some chips off the table - (but) reducing some risk unfortunately also means that spreads might edge wider": creditmarketdaily.com
  • NOTE: Simon Ballard is a credit strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
2539Z GR (European Central Bank)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: INDIA RATINGS: Deepak Fasteners, Udupi Cut; Plastene Raised

INDIA RATINGS: Deepak Fasteners, Udupi Cut; Plastene Raised

(Bloomberg) -- Here’s a roundup of Indian co. debt-rating changes.
  • To get this story sent to your inbox real-time, run NI INRATINGS , click on Display & Edit, then Set Alert Delivery
DOWNGRADES
  • Bihar Raffia
    • Long-term bank facilities cut to D from C at Crisil
    • Cites delays in interest payment on cash credit facility, term loans
  • Deepak Fasteners
    • LT bank facilities cut to D from BBB- at Crisil
    • Cites delays in meeting obligations due to deterioration in liquidity
  • Saket Infraprojects
    • LT bank facilities cut to BB+ from BBB- at Crisil
    • Expects business risk profile of the group to be weaker due to ongoing investigations by Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai
  • Udupi Power
    • LT bank facilities cut to BBB+ from A- at Care
    • Cites weaker-than-expected liquidity
UPGRADES
  • Oswal Extrusion
    • LT bank facilities raised to BB+ from BB at Care
    • Cites growth in total operating income, improvement in profitability
  • Malaxmi Highway
    • LT bank facilities raised to B+ from D at Care
    • Cites improvement in liquidity position, regularization of debt servicing
  • Manika Moulds
    • LT bank facilities raised to BBB+ from BBB at Care
    • Cites increasing volumes in pail container, auto components division
  • Patnaik Steels
    • LT bank facilities raised to C from D at Crisil
    • Cites high gearing, below-average debt protection metrics
  • Plastene India
    • LT bank facilities raised to BB+ from BB at Care
    • Cites growth in total operating income, improvement in profitability
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
ADANI IN (Adani Power Ltd)
1112032D IN (Deepak Fasteners Ltd)
0806196D IN (Malaxmi Highway Pvt Ltd)
0820965D IN (Manika Moulds Pvt Ltd)
0991032D IN (Oswal Extrusion Ltd)

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HALISTER1: Offshore China Govt Bonds Provide Value at Front-End: StanChart

Offshore China Govt Bonds Provide Value at Front-End: StanChart

(Bloomberg) -- Front-end of CNH China government bond is favored due to flat yield curve and likely limited easing near term, Standard Chartered Bank head of China macro strategy Becky Liu writes in note today.
  • Sees value for long-term holders given significant yield pick-up over onshore govt bonds and very limited supply ahead
  • Forecast for CNH China Govt bond auction Thursday:
    • 3-year 3.45-3.55%; 5-year: 3.55-3.65%; 10-year: 3.60-3.70%; 15-year: 3.90-4.00%; 30-year: 4.30-4.40%
  • Expects weaker response to auction as tight CNH liquidity and unattractive after-swap valuations may crimp demand from local commercial banks
  • Onshore CGB yield to rise further; PBOC to tighten liquidity in both onshore and offshore near-term due to FX pressure
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Becky Liu (Standard Chartered Bank)

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HALISTER1: EU Fails to Reach Deal on Foreign Country Hybrid Mismatches

EU Fails to Reach Deal on Foreign Country Hybrid Mismatches

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BNA (Bloomberg BNA)

People
Jeroen Dijsselbloem (Kingdom of the Netherlands)
Peter Kazimir (Slovak Republic)
Pierre Moscovici (European Commission)
Wolfgang Schaeuble (Federal Republic of Germany)

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UUID: 7947283