HALISTER1: Reserve Bank of India Rate Decision Due in 5 Mins; Est. Unchge

Reserve Bank of India Rate Decision Due in 5 Mins; Est. Unchge

(Bloomberg) -- Reserve Bank of India will announce its benchmark rate decision at 11am local time, which will be Governor Rajan’s last scheduled policy review before he steps down in Sept.
  • RBI repurchase rate est. 6.5% vs prev. 6.5%
  • RBI reverse repo rate est. 6% vs prev. 6%
  • RBI cash reserve ratio est. 4% vs prev. 4%
  • INDIA RATE PREVIEW: Rajan Likely to Bow Out With Rates on Hold
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
RBI IN (Reserve Bank of India)

Topics
Financial Firm Departures

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HALISTER1: Nomura Recommends Investors Avoid Singapore Banks’ Tier 2 Bonds

Nomura Recommends Investors Avoid Singapore Banks’ Tier 2 Bonds

(Bloomberg) -- Singaporean banks face more earnings pressure from their heavy exposure to the oil and gas and commodities sectors, Nomura said in a report dated Aug. 8.
  • The downgrade risk by Moody’s on Singapore banks’ ratings could “become meaningful” when the banks announce their results for the financial year 2016 early next year: Nomura
  • Note: DBS Q2 profit fell 6% due to provisions made for Swiber
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283

(2) *CHINA JULY RETAIL AUTO SALES RISE 23.3% ON YEAR: PCA

*CHINA JULY RETAIL AUTO SALES RISE 23.3% ON YEAR: PCA

Alerts: HALISTER, HALISTER1
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
F US (Ford Motor Co)
600006 CH (DongFeng Automobile Co Ltd)
489 HK (Dongfeng Motor Group Co Ltd)
GM US (General Motors Co)
UG FP (Peugeot SA)

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HALISTER1: INSIDE ASIA: Aussie Drops as Rate Cuts Forecast; China CPI Eases

INSIDE ASIA: Aussie Drops as Rate Cuts Forecast; China CPI Eases

(Bloomberg) -- Most Asian currencies trade within 0.1% of yesterday’s close as dollar index rises for fifth day on a gradual revival of Fed rate-hike expectations.
  • Aussie, however, drops more than 0.2%; NAB changes RBA forecasts, now sees 2 rate cuts in 2017
  • China July CPI matches ests.; +1.8% y/y, lowest since Jan.; yuan edges lower
  • India central bank rate decision due 11am Mumbai time; Rajan’s last policy review, likely to hold rates; preview here
  • Asian FX is mixed on day-to-day basis due to summer holidays, lack of fresh incentives and significant events, Mizuho Bank EM trader Masakatsu Fukaya says
    • Inflows likely to continue to EM markets as many developed nations ease monetary policy while U.S. takes slow approach to rate hikes
  • Market pricing 47.4% chance of Fed hike in Dec.
  • Goldman Sachs says buy dollar on Fed; Morgan Stanley says not so fast
  • China inflation to pick up later in yr as flood impacts prices: BNP; PPI may finally turn positive in Nov.-Dec.
    • July PPI -1.7% y/y vs -2.0% est. & -2.6% in June; slower pace of contraction suggests industrial demand is picking up, driven by fiscal stimulus, Huabao Trust economist Nie Wen says
    • A second Chinese shipbuilder defaults on bond payment this yr
  • Australia’s NAB business confidence index at 4 vs 5 in June
    • NAB sees RBA cuts next May and Aug., taking cash rate to 1%; previously forecast rate staying at 1.75% through 3Q 2017
    • AUD/NZD options expiring this week include strikes at 1.0900 for A$1.48b on Aug. 12: DTCC
  • Kiwi falls for third day vs USD
    • Chance of RBNZ cutting rates by 50 bps has climbed to 15% vs 10% yesterday and zero a week ago, according to overnight index swaps; decision tomorrow; economists in survey expect 25-bp cut to 2.0%
    • Shadow board recommends RBNZ cuts rate to 2% on Aug. 11
    • Analysis: RBNZ guidance crucial to tempering kiwi resilience
  • Yen strengthens 0.1% to 102.35 vs dollar
    • USD/JPY 102.00 for $825m expire today: DTCC; other USD/JPY options expiring this week include strikes at 103.00 for $1.52b on Aug. 11 and 102.50 for $1.79b on Aug. 12
  • Won recovers from earlier loss, even as Finance Minister Yoo warns of delay to economic recovery because of corporate restructuring and external uncertainties, including protectionism
  • Ringgit rises after OPEC flags meeting next month and predicts rebound in oil prices, sending crude to near 2-week high
  • Philippines 2Q growth likely 7% y/y on election spending and higher infrastructure investment, Manila Bulletin reports, citing Economic Planning Secretary Pernia
    • Nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio drops below 50% in June, first time since early-1980s, ABS-CBN News reported on Aug. 8
    • June exports data tomorrow; est. -12.5% y/y vs -3.8% prior; weak reading could push USD/PHP toward 2-week high: Analysis
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Masakatsu Fukaya (Mizuho Financial Group Inc)

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HALISTER1: Weak Exports Could Push USD/PHP Toward Two-Week High: Analysis

Weak Exports Could Push USD/PHP Toward Two-Week High: Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- USD/PHP may advance to July 26 high of 47.245 near term if Philippine exports fall as much as or more than economists expect in June, Bloomberg strategist Andrew Robinson writes.
  • Exports fell 12.5% y/y vs 3.8% decline in May, according to median est. in Bloomberg survey; ests. range from -19% to -4.2%; data due 9am local time tomorrow
    • Would be 15th negative month in a row
  • USD/PHP up 0.2% at 46.920 today, holding above 50-DMA at 46.786; FX pair hasn’t closed below this MA since June 23
    • Slow stochastics turns higher to 23, in oversold territory
  • NOTE: Andrew Robinson is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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HALISTER1: RBNZ’s Guidance Crucial to Tempering Kiwi’s Resilience: Analysis

RBNZ’s Guidance Crucial to Tempering Kiwi’s Resilience: Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- With markets pricing in a 100% chance of an RBNZ rate cut Thursday, the central bank will need strong words as well as easing if it’s to send the buoyant kiwi sustainably lower, according to Bloomberg strategist Michael G. Wilson.
  • All surveyed economists expect a 25 bp reduction, Bloomberg survey shows; the last time they unanimously forecast easing was in Sept. 2015
  • The RBNZ signaled further cuts in a July 21 statement and said the kiwi was too strong; the currency has since shrugged off that warning and is up more than 2% vs dollar; on a TWI basis, it’s almost 10% above RBNZ’s forecast
  • “In and of itself, an OCR cut this week is incidental; the real issue is what RBNZ flags for policy thereafter,” ANZ Bank New Zealand said in Aug. 8 note
  • Steps the RBNZ could take to push the kiwi below its 100-DMA include:
    • Lowering the 90-day bank bill track further; RBNZ’s current forecast is for it to fall to 2.1% by mid-2017
    • Signaling more easing and lower rates for longer; Bank of New Zealand on Monday forecast 75 bps of easing by year-end, and over 60 bps of cuts are priced in through mid-2017 in overnight index swaps
    • Cutting the benchmark rate by 50 bps instead of a standard 25; swaps market gives this outcome just a 15% chance, but that’s up from zero a week ago
  • If the RBNZ comes out surprisingly dovish, it could wrong- foot leveraged funds; they hold a near-record long position on the kiwi, the latest CFTC data shows
  • Rate decision is due at 9am Wellington time on Thursday, followed by Gov. Wheeler’s press conference at 10am and his parliamentary testimony at 1:10pm
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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