Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Thursday’s rise in Fed rate increase odds represents a “huge move” and “one that we haven’t seen since just ahead of the March FOMC rate hike,” Todd Colvin, senior VP at Ambrosino Brothers, says in a note. 

• Odds of a Fed rate hike by year-end rose as a high as 46%, based on January 2018 fed fund futures; market was pricing roughly 22% chance of a hike by year-end on Sept. 8
• In late-February, fed hike odds were sub-25% for a March increase “and in just a few days shifted to over 80% odds”
• “We’re not there yet, but this looks eerily similar (and not for a rate hike next week, but year-end). Next week is all about the balance sheet” 
• Click here to see a chart of Fed rate hike odds

To contact the reporter on this story: Alexandra Harris in New York at aharris48@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Boris Korby at bkorby1@bloomberg.net Greg Chang

--AMY THOMSON

--DEBARATI ROY

(Bloomberg) -- Following are forecasts for today’s economic releases as compiled by Bloomberg News.

• CPI 0.3% m/m; range 0.2% to 0.4% (76 estimates)
• Core CPI 0.2% m/m; range 0.1% to 0.2% (73 estimates)
• CPI 1.8% y/y; range 1.7% to 2% (44 estimates)
• CORE CPI 1.6% y/y; range 1.5% to 1.7% (43 estimates)
• Core CPI Index SA 252.336; range 252.297 to 252.361 (4 estimates)
• In July, the CPI rose 0.1 percent, the first increase in three months
• “Hurricane Harvey will have some impact on the CPI via energy prices. BI Economics estimates that seasonally- adjusted gasoline prices rose 5% in August, due to the late- month price surge, which will in turn lift the change in the headline by 0.2 ppts. relative to the core”: Bloomberg Intelligence
• Initial Claims 300k; range 240k to 465k (41 estimates)
• Cont. Claims 1965k; range 1930k to 2000k (8 estimates)
• In the prior report, initial claims rose to 298,000, the highest since April 17, 2015
• “Jobless claims will continue to be roiled by Hurricane Harvey in the coming weeks. The 62k increase in the prior week probably did not fully account for the job dislocation resulting from the storm, as utility and transportation disruptions likely impeded many potential claimants from successfully filing”: Bloomberg Intelligence

To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Tanzi in Washington at atanzi@bloomberg.net; Vincent Del Giudice in Denver at vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net Kristy Scheuble