Halister News

Economic Release Details: {EGBRDRAR Index ECOD} --TAREK EL-TABLAWY

Australia to strengthen money laundering rules, includes bitcoin: reut.rs/2wTCytQ #fintech #ReutersFintech pic.twitter.com/IPL7M4dvux
Reuters Business @ReutersBiz
Sent With: SocialFlow
Original tweet on Twitter.com found here.

Twitter profile information as of August 17, 2017 Description: Top business news around the world. Join us @Reuters, @breakingviews, @ReutersGMF Tweets: 124,391  Following: 234  Followers: 1,919,902  Tweeting Since: 6/13/2008  Twitter Verified

(Bloomberg) -- Nomura strategists Penglu Zhao, Stanley Sun and George Goncalves issue views Wednesday on Treasury futures calendar roll.

• “Mildly” bullish TUU7/TUZ7; longs should roll early
  • Asset managers’ net position may result in roll widening as recent history suggests; TU may richen by 0.5-1 tick
  • Longs have been fluctuating around peak levels in 3Q, ~18% of open interest, and have been a leading indicators for the roll into the first notice date
• “Mildly” bearish FVU7/FVZ7; shorts should roll early
  • Asset managers still hold record net long, which “is likely to be a source of tightening pressure into the roll cycle”
  • FV roll pace slightly behind the historical avg, which suggests there may be more “catching-up trades” into the first notice date, cheapening the roll
• “Mildly” bearish TYU7/TYZ7; shorts should roll early
  • May be some “marginal widening pressure” on the spread if the long-end experiences some steepening pressure, especially after geopolitical tensions have eased
  • TYU7 exhibits “a decent size of negative basis,” which may help the contract cheapen into first delivery date relative to TYZ7
• “Mildly” bullish UXYU7/UXYZ7; longs should roll early
  • Roll historically has shown “very strong” widening bias into first notice; expect spread to widen ~2-3 ticks into first notice during this cycle
  • Asset managers’ “persistent net short position” has also played a part in richening the roll
• Neutral USU7/USZ7
  • Both contracts share the same CTDs, just like last cycle, and the roll widened before first notice date and stayed within a tight range
• “Mildly” bearish WNU7/WNZ7; shorts should roll early
  • With a large investor base in the asset manager community, WN rolls “may be subject to some tightening pressure”; during seven of the last 10 rolls, WN cheapened into first notice date, “suggesting a persistent bearish bias”
  • Since both CTDs are the same, there may be “limited volatilities”

To contact the reporter on this story: Alexandra Harris in New York at aharris48@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Boris Korby at bkorby1@bloomberg.net Vivien Lou Chen

(Bloomberg) -- A slowdown in Brazil’s 2Q economic activity was highly expected after surprising numbers in 1Q driven by agriculture sector, according to analysts consulted by Bloomberg. Brazil might expect an incipient growth in the 2H as the almost 3-year long recession indicates its end. 

• 2Q GDP will probably stay between -0.1% and 0.2%, close to stability, Quantitas Gestao de Recursos chief economist Ivo Chermont says in interview
  • Economic recovery is going to be gradual; unemployment, real income have already started to show some improvement
• IBC-BR data is not surprising and comes in line with expectations, economy should gain strength in 2H, Haitong Bank economist Flavio Serrano says in interview
  • "Worse is behind us; Brazil is likely not to have negative GDP anymore"
• Recent soft and hard data give us confidence that after an 11-quarter long recession, the economy likely reached an inflection point during 1Q, Goldman Sachs economist Alberto Ramos in emailed report
  • However, growth is expected to remain weak and volatile throughout 2017 given high policy and political uncertainty and a number of other structural factors
• NOTE: Brazil June Economic Activity +0.50% M/m; Est. +0.7%

To contact the reporter on this story: Ana Carolina Siedschlag in São Paulo at asiedschlag@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Daniela Milanese at dmilanese@bloomberg.net Danielle Chaves