HALISTER1: Roche Guidance Probably Accounts for Aphinity Failure: Berenberg

Roche Guidance Probably Accounts for Aphinity Failure: Berenberg

(Bloomberg) -- Business ended year somewhat more slowly than expected and 2017 guidance looks “a touch light” at EPS level, Berenberg analyst Alistair Campbell writes in client note.
  • Assuming “low-mid single digits” guidance is +4% and that FX adds another 1%, then guidance points to sales of CHF53.1b (in line with consensus) and core EPS of CHF15.3 (3% below consensus)
  • Co. guidance probably assumes that Aphinity fails; Roche said it allowed for “Aphinity outcomes”
    • It’s likely that it accounts for gap versus consensus
    • Unlikely to have a significant effect on 2017 numbers (if successful, approval wouldn’t come until 2018), but there could be some impact on Perjeta sales in neo- adjuvant setting
  • It is clear that Avastin is being displaced by uptake of immuno-oncology in lung cancer
  • Could be that the metastatic market served by Perjeta is beginning to mature, flagging importance of Aphinity to fuel future growth
  • Buy rating, PT CHF280
  • NOTE: Roche Holding pointed to slower earnings growth this year
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
ROG VX (Roche Holding AG)
4519 JP (Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd)

People
Alistair Campbell (Joh Berenberg Gossler & Co KG)

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HALISTER1: India FY 2018 Borrowings Seen Non-Disruptive, Trust Capital Says

India FY 2018 Borrowings Seen Non-Disruptive, Trust Capital Says

(Bloomberg) -- India govt’s planned net borrowing of 3.48t rupees for FY2018 is “a non-disruptive number, lower than what market was expecting,” says Sandeep Bagla, associate director at Trust Capital Services.
  • Yields can settle at lower levels now that supply-side concerns are over, he adds
  • Yield on 10-year bond falls 3bps to 6.38%
  • NOTE: India Revises FY18 Budget Deficit Goal to 3.2% of GDP, Finance Minister Jaitley says
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Sandeep Bagla (Trust Capital Services Pvt Ltd)

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HALISTER1: Deutsche, Goldman, Peers Dealing With Sanctions, Bribery Probes

Deutsche, Goldman, Peers Dealing With Sanctions, Bribery Probes

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BI (Bloomberg Intelligence)

Tickers
C US (Citigroup Inc)
DBK GR (Deutsche Bank AG)
GS US (Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The)
HSBA LN (HSBC Holdings PLC)
GLE FP (Societe Generale SA)

Topics
BI Analysis

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HALISTER1: Swedish FSA Says Has Informed Banks of Panama Investigation: DI

Swedish FSA Says Has Informed Banks of Panama Investigation: DI

(Bloomberg) -- Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority head Erik Thedeen says watchdog has sent letters to Sweden’s four biggest banks to inform them about the findings of its investigation into money laundering prompted by the Panama papers.
  • Says banks will now have to provide feedback to the findings, which secrecy laws currently prohibit from being revealed to the public
  • Says entire process is expected to be finished in “months and not years”
  • Says mortgage amortization requirement has roughly had expected effect
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
NDA SS (Nordea Bank AB)
SEBA SS (Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB)
SHBA SS (Svenska Handelsbanken AB)
SWEDA SS (Swedbank AB)

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Erik Thedeen (Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority)

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HALISTER: BBVA 4Q Net EU678M, Exceeds EU520M Estimate

BBVA 4Q Net EU678M, Exceeds EU520M Estimate

(Bloomberg) -- BBVA 4q net EU678m compares with EU520m in av. estimate of 8 analysts.
  • 4q NII EU4.39b vs EU4.42b a year earlier
  • Bad loans ratio 4.9%
  • CET1 fully-loaded 10.9%; bank maintains 11% goal for 2017
  • BBVA to implement policy announced 2013, destine 35%-40% of earnings to dividend, 100% in cash
  • BBVA comments in regulatory filing Wednesday
Alert: HALISTER
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
BBVA SM (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA)

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UUID: 7947283